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Key insights:
- 25% of likely smartphone buyers expect to replace their smartphone within 1-2 years, up from 15% in 2023.
- Likely buyers expecting to spend under $300 fell from 33% in 2023 to 22% in 2025.
New data from YouGov Surveys: Serviced suggests that a substantial share of Americans may enter the smartphone market in the coming year, with 45% saying they are very or somewhat likely to purchase a new handset, up from 36% in 2023. But the more notable change comes from how long consumers expect their next device to last — and how spending expectations have evolved since 2023.
Comparing data from two years shows a clear movement toward shorter replacement cycles. The proportion of consumers expecting to keep a smartphone for 1-2 years has increased sharply from 15% in 2023 to 25% in 2025, while expectations for a 2-3-year lifespan have also risen (24% to 29%). At the same time, longer usage windows have declined: those anticipating 3-4 years of use have fallen from 19% to 16%, 4-5 years from 12% to 10%, and more than five years have dropped by half (16% to 8%).
Spending expectations have also changed. In 2023, one third of likely buyers (33%) expected to spend under $300 on their next device. In 2025, that figure has fallen to 22%, signaling a drop in ultra-budget intentions. Meanwhile, interest in the $301-$500 bracket has risen from 15% to 23%, and the $501-$750 range has seen a smaller increase (13% to 15%).
Taken together, consumers appear more willing to upgrade sooner and spend slightly more. For tech brands, carriers and retailers, understanding these behavioral shifts will be essential as they plan devices, pricing strategies, and promotional campaigns for the year ahead.
Methodology: YouGov Surveys: Serviced provides quick survey results from nationally representative or targeted audiences in multiple markets. The 2023 study was conducted online on Feb 21-23, 2023, with a nationally representative sample of 2,408 adults while the 2025 study was conducted on Nov 12-13, 2025, with 1,056 adults (aged 18+ years) in the US, using a questionnaire designed by YouGov. Data figures have been weighted by age, race, gender, education, and region to be representative of all adults in the US (18 years or older), and reflect the latest population estimates from the Census Bureau’s American Community Survey.