Clarifying Birther Thinking

Most Americans think that Barack Obama was born in the United States, but only a third of Republicans agree

The beliefs of many “birthers” – those who think that President Obama was born outside the United States – may not be as set in stone as they appear. In the latest Economist/YouGov Poll, 61% of those who declare that the statement “Barack Obama was born in the United States” is false change their minds when asked how sure they are, and say that in fact it is possible he was born in the United States.

Of course, the controversy over the President’s birthplace – and therefor his eligibility to serve as President – has a partisan cast. Two-thirds of Republicans disagree with the statement that the President was born in the United States. But they are nearly as likely as those of other political viewpoints who say the President was born outside the country to admit that they know this for sure. However, that still leaves more than a quarter of Republicans in this poll who say they are sure the President was born outside the United States.

Overall, 15% of adults say they are sure the President was not born in the United States.

The percentage agreeing that the President was born within the United States is nearly as high as it was immediately after the release of the long-form birth certificate, and is higher that the percentage agreeing during the 2012 re-election campaign. (I HAVE LINKED TO PREVIOUS YOUGOV ARTICLES ABOUT THIS)

One point of potential confusion could be the perceived status of Hawaii at the time of the President’s birth. Hawaii had become a state less than two years before Barack Obama was born; it had been a territory since it was annexed by the United States in 1893, shortly after the Hawaiian monarchy was overthrown.

College graduates are among the least likely of all groups to think that the President was born outside the United States; only 6% of them are sure he was.

The majority of Americans who agree that Barack Obama was born in the United States see antagonism towards the President as the reason that people make the claim that Barack Obama was not.

Republican non-birthers are more likely to say that birthers are sincere in their beliefs. Half of them say birthers aren’t just taking that position because they don’t like the President.

The question of the location of the President’s birth is important because the Constitution states that in order to be eligible to serve as President (or Vice-President) a person must be a “natural born citizen” of the United States (those who were citizens at the time of the adoption of the Constitution were obviously exempt from the birth requirement). Typically, this has been read as meaning someone born within the boundaries of the United States or outside the United States to U.S. citizens; however, there are no Supreme Court cases defining exactly what the phrase means for the Presidency.

Some have argued that both parents must also be citizens: that would impact the presidential qualifications not just of Barack Obama (whose father was Kenyan), but also possible 2016 Republican candidates like Texas Senator Ted Cruz, born in Canada to an American mother and a Cuban father.

Americans, “natural born” or not in the latest Economist/YouGov Poll, do want presidential candidates to produce a birth certificates before being placed on the ballot: 68% agree, including nearly all Republicans (93%) and a majority of Democrats (55%)

Deciding where a Presidential library should be usually means placing it near a President’s birthplace or in the location where the President became a political leader. Ronald Reagan’s Presidential library is in California, not in his native Illinois, George H.W. Bush’s library is in Texas, not Massachusetts. But the Dwight D. Eisenhower library is in AbIlene, Kansas, where he grew up, though he was born in Texas, and at the time he ran for President, he was working in New York City. There are several sites competing for the Barack Obama presidential library: Honolulu, Hawaii, where Barack Obama was born and raised, and Chicago, where he came to political prominence. New York City may also be a contender.

Americans in a recent YouGov Poll gave Chicago a small edge, but not without a birther argument. 11% said the library should be outside the United States, with most of those siting it in Kenya or elsewhere in Africa.

The only region where Hawaii was in first place was in the West. Northeasterners were divided. Nearly one in five Republicans volunteered that the Obama Library should be in Africa.

But most Americans – Democrats and Republicans – approve of the system of Presidential libraries, where funds raised privately. Only 16% overall disapprove.

Images: Getty

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