Editor's note: This article was originally published in The Surveyor, YouGov America's email newsletter. It has been revised for publication here. Subscribe to The Surveyor for regular updates on YouGov's polling.

A YouGov poll released on the eve of Tuesday's Texas primaries shows James Talarico with a 13-point lead over Jasmine Crockett among likely voters in the Democratic U.S. Senate primary. In the Republican U.S. Senate primary, Ken Paxton has 36% of likely voters, compared to 32% for John Cornyn and 17% for Wesley Hunt. If no candidate wins a majority, the top two candidates in that primary will advance to a runoff.

The Democratic primary shows significant splits along racial lines. Talarico leads Crockett among white likely Democratic primary voters by 69% to 26%, and among Hispanic voters by 60% to 31%. Crockett leads among Black voters by 84% to 7%.

Talarico does better among younger voters, with a 60% to 28% lead among 18- to 29-year-olds, while Crockett leads 50% to 46% among those 65 and older. Self-identified Democrats are split: 48% for Talarico and 46% for Crockett. Talarico leads Independents who are likely Democratic primary voters by 59% to 34%.

Talarico has the edge among voters who are very liberal (58% vs. 36%), liberal (57% vs. 37%), and moderate (55% vs. 39%). Crockett leads 59% to 29% among the 8% of likely Democratic primary voters who say they are either conservative or very conservative.

On the Republican side, 36% of likely Republican primary voters support Paxton, compared to 32% for Cornyn and 17% for Hunt.

Paxton leads Cornyn and Hunt among voters under 65, while Cornyn leads among those 65 and older. Paxton is ahead of Cornyn by 48% to 27% among very conservative voters while Cornyn leads 40% to 19% among moderates. Paxton leads Cornyn among likely Republican primary voters who identify as MAGA supporters by 41% to 30%. Cornyn leads Paxton among non-MAGA supporters by 45% to 15%. Hunt is in third among most major demographic subgroups.

See the results of this poll.

Methodology: The February 26 - March 2, 2026 poll was conducted among 4,115 likely Texas primary voters. Respondents were randomly selected from the Texas voter list and contacted by SMS text message. All interviews were conducted online using YouGov’s web-based survey system. Likely voters are respondents who say they will definitely vote, or who already voted in the Democratic or Republican primary. The margin of error is approximately 3 percentage points among likely Democratic primary voters and approximately 3 points among likely Republican primary voters.

Image: Getty (Richard Rodriguez / Stringer and Joel Angel Juarez / Stringer)

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