Registered voters in swing districts prefer Democrats to Republicans for Congress

Registered voters are more likely to say they'll vote for Democrats than Republicans in this fall's congressional elections by a margin of 4 percentage points, according to the latest Economist / YouGov Poll. That's in line with the consistent single-digit leads for Democrats — usually low single digits — that Economist / YouGov surveys have found among registered voters over the past year.

Some of that narrow Democratic lead comes from voters in uncompetitive House districts. In the 182 districts that Inside Elections rates as Solid Democratic, Democrats have a 57% to 32% lead over Republicans in the past three weeks of Economist / YouGov polling, or 25 percentage points. In the 188 Solid Republican districts, Republicans lead 51% to 37% — a smaller 14-point advantage. Put another way, 38% of all registered voters live in uncompetitive districts and support Democratic candidates in November, and 34% live in uncompetitive districts and support Republican candidates. That 4-point advantage is in line with Democrats' national advantage on this question.

But Democrats aren't only running up the score on their home turf. They also have a narrow edge in the most competitive congressional districts. Voters in the 65 districts that Inside Elections says are either likely to be won by one party but not solid, leaning or tilting toward one party, or pure tossups are more likely to support Democrats over Republicans by 5 percentage points (45% vs. 40%).

That Democratic advantage in swing seats amounts to only about 1% of all registered voters, but this relatively small group could decide which party controls Congress.

One warning sign for Republicans comes from Economist / YouGov questions asking Americans to rate the favorability of their incumbent member of the House. In general, Americans are far more likely to view their own representative favorably than they are to approve of Congress as a whole. But that doesn't apply to all incumbents.

Among registered voters in districts with Democratic members of the House, incumbents over the past three weeks of Economist / YouGov polling have positive net favorability in both safe districts (45% very or somewhat favorable and 27% unfavorable, for a net of +18) and swing districts (45% vs. 34%, or +12 after rounding). The same is true among registered voters living in safe districts with Republican representatives: 37% of them view their member of the House favorably and 32% view them unfavorably, a net of +5.

But among voters living in swing districts with incumbent Republicans, only 33% view their representative favorably and 49% view them unfavorably — a net of -16

In these swing districts, Democratic registered voters with Democratic incumbents are overwhelmingly favorable about them: 79% very or somewhat favorable and 9% unfavorable. Most Republican registered voters with Republican incumbents also have favorable opinions about them, but less overwhelmingly (63% vs. 21%). Swing-district Independents with Democratic incumbents are much more likely to feel positively about their representatives (44% vs. 27%) than swing-district Independents with Republican incumbents are (22% vs. 47%).

Among the 44% of registered voters who say they always or mostly vote for Democrats, almost all say in this week's survey they'll vote for Democrats for Congress now, including 97% of those who always vote for Democrats and 90% of those who mostly vote for Democrats.

A slightly larger 49% of registered voters say they never (24%) or only occasionally (25%) vote for Democrats. This group is squarely in the Republican camp for the 2026 election, but less overwhelmingly than among those who usually vote for Democrats: 77% of those who say they only occasionally vote Democratic and 85% of those who say they never vote for Democrats are planning to vote for Republicans this fall.

The same story is true when looking at how often respondents say they vote for Republican candidates. Republicans do better among those who always or mostly vote Republican than Democrats do among those who rarely or never vote Republican.

But among the roughly 7% of registered voters who say they vote for Democrats about half the time, Democrats currently have a big lead in the upcoming congressional elections (47% plan to vote for Democrats and 23% for Republicans, a 24-point lead). That's a bigger gap than how this same group voted in the 2022 congressional elections (43% vs. 26%, a 17-point lead).

This narrow Democratic advantage in the race for Congress is unfolding amid consistently low approval numbers for Donald Trump: 36% of U.S. adult citizens strongly or somewhat approve of Trump, and 60% disapprove, for a net job approval of -24. That's far below Trump's net job approval at this point in his first term (-11) or Joe Biden's net approval at this point in his term (-16).

Image: Getty

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