Registered voters prefer Democratic candidates for Congress to Republican candidates by a 6-point margin (46% vs. 40%), according to this week's Economist / YouGov Poll. Democrats lead by more among likely voters, according to both of YouGov's two definitions of them:
- An 8-point Democratic lead (50% vs. 41%, with the lead calculated by subtracting and then rounding) among the likely voters defined by YouGov's loose screen, who are those registered voters who either have already voted or say they definitely or probably will vote
- An 11-point Democratic lead (52% vs. 41%) under YouGov's strict screen: registered voters who either have already voted or say they definitely will vote
All three margins are in line with Economist / YouGov Polls in recent weeks.
Democrats' 11-point lead among likely voters according to the strict screen is bigger than the 6-point lead Democrats held at this stage of the 2018 election among the equivalent group; the poll question then didn't name candidates. In 2018, Democrats won the national popular vote by 9 points and won 235 seats in the House.
Registered voters in states with U.S. Senate races prefer Democratic candidates for the Senate to Republicans, but by smaller margins than Democrats' national lead in U.S. House vote preference. Democrats have a 3-point lead nationally in Senate races among registered voters, a 3-point lead among loose-screen likely voters, and a 4-point lead among strict-screen likely voters. The reason for the smaller leads is mainly that states with Senate elections lean slightly more Republican than states without them. However, among strict-screen likely voters in Senate-election states, Democratic House candidates are running ahead of Senate candidates, leading by 8 points.
YouGov has also conducted state-based polling in states with key U.S. Senate races. See those individual state polls here.
An important part of the background for elections is the unpopularity of President Donald Trump. 39% of registered voters strongly or somewhat approve of Trump's job performance, and 58% disapprove — a net job approval of -19. That's lower than Trump's -7 net approval at this point in 2018 and Joe Biden's of -8 in late October 2022.
Image: Getty (Kevin Dietsch / Staff)
What do you really think about President Trump, American politics in general, and everything else? Share your reality, join the YouGov panel, and get paid to share your thoughts. Sign up here.
