Americans who intend to vote in the 2028 Republican presidential primaries are most likely to name JD Vance and Marco Rubio as their preferred candidate, according to the latest Economist / YouGov Poll. Kamala Harris, Jon Ossoff, Gavin Newsom, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, and Pete Buttigieg are the most mentioned names in a more fractured field of Democratic contenders.
The Economist / YouGov asked 2028 primary voters an open-ended question about the candidate they'd most likely vote for in their preferred party primary, and coded the results using an AI model. 40% of intended Republican primary voters say Vance, followed by 33% saying Rubio and 14% naming Ron DeSantis. 9% say they'd vote for Donald Trump. Nikki Haley and Thomas Massie are each mentioned by 1%.
Among MAGA supporters, 45% name Vance, 35% Rubio, and 10% DeSantis. Among non-MAGA supporters who plan to vote in the Republican primaries, 33% name Vance, 29% Rubio, and 19% DeSantis.
Among intended Democratic primary voters, 20% mention Harris, followed by 15% naming Ossoff, 13% Newsom, 12% Ocasio-Cortez, and 10% Buttigieg.
Other possible Democratic primary candidates who at least 1% name are Mark Kelly (4%), Josh Shapiro (3%), Andy Beshear (3%), J.B. Pritzker (3%), Bernie Sanders (2%), Zohran Mamdani (2%), Cory Booker (2%), James Talarico (1%), and Hillary Clinton (1%).
Intended Democratic primary voters who say they're very liberal are most likely to name Ocasio-Cortez (27%), while those who are liberal but not very liberal most often name Ossoff (23%) and moderates most often name Harris (27%). Ossoff and Harris reach 10% with all three groups while Ocasio-Cortez is weaker with moderates and liberals who aren't very liberal.
39% of Americans say that in the 2028 general election, they will definitely (30%) or probably (9%) vote for the Democratic candidate. 31% say they'll definitely (24%) or probably (8%) vote for the Republican.
The share of Democrats who say they'll definitely vote for the Democratic candidate (75%) is larger than the share of Republicans who say they'll definitely vote for the Republican candidate (64%). 85% of MAGA Republicans but only 46% of non-MAGA Republicans say they'll definitely vote for the Republican.
Independents are twice as likely to say they'll definitely or probably vote Democratic as to vote Republican (28% vs. 14%); most say equally likely, neither, or not sure.
Twice as many Americans would favor directly electing presidents by popular vote as would oppose replacing the Electoral College (48% vs. 25%). Most Democrats support the popular vote (68% vs. 9%), while fewer Republicans would ditch the Electoral College than keep it (33% vs. 46%). Independents are more likely to favor the popular vote (43% vs. 20%), but many aren't sure (37%).
Among the one-quarter of Americans who say they know a lot about the Electoral College, the popular vote is preferred by 13 points (53% vs. 39%). It has a 29-point advantage among the 44% of Americans who know a little about the Electoral College (54% vs. 26%) and a 21-point edge among the 21% who have heard of the Electoral College but don't know how it works (41% vs. 15%). Among the one-tenth who've never heard of the Electoral College, 74% aren't sure which method they prefer; 20% favor replacing it and 5% keeping it, after reading a description of the two options.
There is little difference in opinion on replacing the Electoral College among Americans living in swing states and those in other parts of the country.
Image: Getty (Megan Varner / Stringer)
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