Registered voters in each party expect different threats to the outcome of the 2026 congressional elections, according to this week’s Economist / YouGov Poll. About half (51%) of registered voters — including 75% of Democrats and only 31% of Republicans — expect that if Democrats win a majority in the U.S. Senate, Republicans will challenge the results and refuse to seat some Democratic senators.
Republicans are far more likely to expect voter fraud to decide the outcome. Two-thirds (67%) of Republicans think the amount of voter fraud in the 2026 election will be enough to change who wins control of Congress, as do 36% of Independents and 16% of Democrats. MAGA Republicans — Republicans who say they are MAGA supporters — are more likely than non-MAGA Republicans to think fraud will decide the outcome (77% vs. 52%).
In polls conducted right after each of the last two presidential elections, we asked how much voter fraud had occurred. In November 2020, 40% of registered voters said there had been enough voter fraud to influence the outcome. In November 2024, 9% of registered voters said so.
Nearly half (46%) of registered voters think votes will be counted accurately in this year's election; 18% think they will not be counted accurately and 35% are not sure. Democrats (56%) are more likely than Independents (41%) and Republicans (42%) to think votes will be counted accurately. About one-third of each group is not sure.
The poll also asked how serious a problem each of four things is in U.S. elections. Foreign interference is the only one of the four that Democrats and Republicans are similarly concerned about: 73% of Democrats and 69% of Republicans say foreign interference is a very or somewhat serious problem, as do 71% of registered voters overall.
73% of registered voters — including 83% of Democrats and 63% of Republicans — say the drawing of legislative and congressional districts by states that intentionally favor one political party is a very or somewhat serious problem.
Far more Republicans than Democrats say voting by non-citizens (82% vs. 19%) and mail-in voting fraud (84% vs. 17%) are very or somewhat serious problems. Half (50%) of registered voters say each of those two is a very or somewhat serious problem.
About half (48%) of registered voters think it is very or somewhat likely that the federal government will deploy federal agents or troops at polling places in Democratic areas; 32% think it is not very or at all likely. 65% of Democrats think it is very or somewhat likely, as do 47% of Independents and 35% of Republicans.
Image: Getty (Courtney Pedroza / Stringer)
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