YouGov polls conducted in the last three weeks among likely voters in seven states show Republicans trailing in six of them. Democratic candidates lead Republican candidates in Texas, New Hampshire, Ohio, Kansas, and Michigan, while an Independent candidate leads the Republican candidate in Nebraska.
In governor's races, Democrats are ahead in attempts to flip Texas and Ohio, and to hold Michigan. Republicans lead in the other states.
Methodology: The polls were conducted between September 18 - October 5, 2026, among a group of likely voters numbering between 1,520 and 3,949 in each state. The margins of error ranged between 2.5 and 3.9 percentage points. Likely voters were defined using a model that takes into account past vote, demographics, and self-reported likelihood to vote.
Full results of the polls and their methodology:
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