Democratic candidates lead Republican candidates by 7 points among registered voters, and by 8 and 11 points among two groups of likely voters as defined by YouGov's screens, according to the latest Economist / YouGov Poll. All three Democratic leads are down slightly from last week's poll.
Democrats lead by 8 points among YouGov's "loose" likely voter screen, which consists of U.S. adult citizens who meet two criteria: (1) They either are registered to vote or both say they will be registered to vote by the November elections and live in states where registration remains an option, and (2) They have already voted or say they definitely or probably will vote. The Democratic lead is 11 points on the "strict" likely voter screen: registered voters who have already voted or say they will definitely vote.
Though the Democratic lead has narrowed since last week, Democratic candidates continue to have a larger lead among strict-screen likely voters than they had among the same group in the 2018 midterm elections, when Democrats won the national popular vote by 9 points and gained 41 seats in the U.S. House of Representatives.
This Democratic lead in the 2026 U.S. House elections comes amid President Donald Trump's continued unpopularity. 34% of U.S. adult citizens strongly or somewhat approve of Trump's job handling, and 62% disapprove — a net job approval of -28. That's in line with recent weeks but down from a year ago, when Trump's net approval was regularly between -10 and -20. It's also far lower than Trump's net job approval at this point in his first term (-10) or Joe Biden's at this point in his term (-1).
57% of Americans say their opinion of Trump has worsened a lot or a little since he started his second term, matching the largest share in a series of six YouGov polls since April 2025 that have asked the question. Only 16% say their opinion of him has improved.
Most Americans (57%) who strongly approve of Trump's job performance say their opinion of him has improved a lot since his second term began and only 1% say it has worsened. Among people who somewhat approve of Trump's performance, more say their opinion of him has worsened (25%) than say it has improved (20%); 53% say it hasn't changed.
45% of Americans say the policy positions Trump has taken in his second term are very or somewhat different from the positions he took as a candidate in 2024; 40% say his positions are not very or at all different. Among people who say Trump’s positions have changed, few prefer the change: 24% prefer the positions he held as a candidate in 2024, 8% prefer the ones he holds as president now, and 63% prefer neither set. Among the 28% of Republicans who say Trump’s positions have changed since his second term started, 56% prefer the positions he campaigned on and 30% prefer the ones he holds now.
Image: Getty (Chip Somodevilla / Staff)
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