Democratic candidates have an 8-point lead over Republican candidates among registered voters in the latest Economist / YouGov Poll — and an even bigger lead among the most likely voters.
The 8-point lead for Democratic candidates is the largest in any Economist / YouGov Poll this election cycle. It's substantially larger than the 3-point lead Democrats had among registered voters at this point in the 2022 election. At this point in 2024, the race was tied.
But not all registered voters with a candidate preference will vote in November. Among registered voters who say they'll definitely vote or have already voted, 52% back Democratic candidates and 40% support Republican candidates, making for a 12-point Democratic lead. Among all other registered voters, Republicans lead by 7 points (38% for Republicans vs. 31% for Democrats).
YouGov Chief Scientist Douglas Rivers wrote in our newsletter yesterday that there are multiple ways polls can define likely voters — and the choice of definition can affect the results. Economist / YouGov Polls are now publishing results for two different likely voter screens:
- Strict: Registered voters who have already voted or say they will definitely vote. This excludes anybody who isn't registered, even if they plan to register, as well as anyone who is registered but isn’t sure that they will vote.
- Loose: Includes everyone who passes the strict screen and adds registered voters who say they will probably vote, as well as people who aren't registered but plan to register and who say they will definitely or probably vote. This balances uncertainty between the registration and turnout questions.
Among likely voters under the strict screen, Democrats have a 12-point lead. That's 4 points better than Democrats' 8-point lead among registered voters. Likely voters under the loose screen are in between: Democrats lead by 10 points after rounding (51% vs. 40%).
Economist / YouGov Polls in September used a third kind of likely voter screen. They defined likely voters as U.S. adult citizens who met two criteria: (1) They either were registered to vote or said they will be registered to vote by the November elections; and (2) They either said they will definitely vote in November or said they had already voted.
As Rivers wrote, this produced a 16-point Democratic lead, which "is almost certainly an overstatement": a Democratic lead about 2 points bigger than that produced by the new strict screen in each of the past two polls. YouGov is retiring that old likely voter screen beginning with this week's poll.
About 14% of Election Day registered voters — U.S. adult citizens who are either currently registered to vote or say they'll register by Election Day — are classified as likely voters under YouGov's loose screen but not its strict screen. This group is disproportionately younger — 22% of adults under 30 fall into this category, compared to 10% of those 45 and older. Other groups especially likely to be likely voters only under the loose screen are Republicans who say they're not MAGA supporters (19%), and those with mixed feelings about Trump's job performance: 19% of those who somewhat approve of Trump and 28% of those who somewhat disapprove fall into this category, compared to 6% of those who strongly approve and 12% of those who strongly disapprove.
35% of U.S. adult citizens strongly or somewhat approve of Trump's job performance, while 60% disapprove, for a net job approval of -25. Over the past three Economist / YouGov Polls, Trump has averaged a -27 net approval, which is near his lowest ever received.
Image: Getty (Win McNamee / Staff)
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