Likely voters prefer Democratic candidates over Republican candidates by 16 points in the November congressional elections, their largest lead in any Economist / YouGov Poll this year so far. 53% of likely voters prefer the Democratic candidate and 38% prefer the Republican candidate; the lead is calculated by subtracting those percentages before rounding them.
This 16-point Democratic lead among likely voters is far larger than their 6-point lead among currently registered voters, or the 9-point Democratic lead among voters who are either registered to vote or say they will register by Election Day.
The Economist / YouGov Polls define likely voters as U.S. adult citizens who meet two criteria: (1) They either are registered to vote or say they will be registered to vote by the November elections; and (2) They either say they will definitely vote in November or say they have already voted.
Almost all Democrats (93%) say they will vote for the Democratic candidate in their district, while almost as many Republicans say they'll vote for the Republican candidate (87%). But Independents are backing Democrats by a 2-to-1 margin (59% vs. 27%).
Within the group of likely voters, Democratic candidates lead Republican candidates among men (49% vs. 42%), women (57% vs. 34%), college graduates (58% vs. 35%), and non-college graduates (50% vs. 40%). 45- to 64-year-olds are closely divided (46% vs. 45%), but Democrats lead among 18- to 29-year-olds (72% vs. 16%), 30- to 44-year-olds (58% vs. 35%), and likely voters who are 65 and older (49% vs. 42%).
Democrats have led among Independent likely voters in all Economist / YouGov Polls this month, but their lead has grown since early September. In the September 4 - 8, 2026 poll, Democrats had a 24-point lead among Independents; in the September 25 - 28 poll, that lead is up to 32 points. The Democratic lead among Independent likely voters has grown among men (+26 points, from +16), women (+43 from +31), 18- to 44-year-olds (+50 from +42), adults 45 and older (+21 from +14), and non-college graduates (+29 from +11). The Democratic edge among Independent likely voters who are college graduates remains large but has dropped slightly during this period (+36 from +39).
The 16-point Democratic lead among likely voters is larger than any lead Democrats held among a similarly defined group in any Economist / YouGov Poll during the 2018 congressional elections, in which Democrats recaptured the House of Representatives but lost seats in the U.S. Senate. Democrats' largest lead in 2018 among registered voters who said they will definitely vote was 11 points in the September 23 - 25, 2025 Economist / YouGov Poll.
Image: Getty (Tom Brenner / Stringer)
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