More registered voters say they'll vote for the Democratic candidate for Congress than say they'll vote for the Republican candidate, according to the July 25 - 27 Economist / YouGov Poll, as has been the case every time the poll has asked this question ahead of the 2026 midterms, dating back to spring 2025. 46% of registered voters say they'd vote for the Democrat and 42% say they'd vote for the Republican, a 4-point Democratic lead.
This 4-point lead for Democrats contrasts with the -28 margin by which Americans disapprove of how Trump is handling his job as president. YouGov's analysis has found much of the difference can be explained by three subgroups of the registered voters who disapprove of Trump:
- Disengaged Americans who rarely vote
- Republican-leaning voters who are on the fence about the 2026 congressional elections
- Generally Democratic voters who nonetheless say they're unsure about their 2026 choice, wouldn't vote, or would vote for a third-party candidate
Overall, 61% of Americans strongly or somewhat disapprove of how the U.S. Congress is handling its job, while only 12% approve. But it's a different story when YouGov asked Americans about their own members of Congress: 33% have a very or somewhat favorable opinion of their incumbent representative, and 30% have an unfavorable view.
In general, incumbent congressional representatives have much higher name recognition than do either Democratic or Republican challengers. 29% of registered voters don't have an opinion about their incumbent representative, but 59% of those with a Democratic challenger in their district don't have an opinion about that challenger, and 63% of those with a Republican challenger don't have an opinion about them.
Majorities of Americans dislike both Democrats in Congress (32% very or somewhat favorable and 58% unfavorable) and Republicans in Congress (32% vs. 58%). But large majorities of members of each party like their own party's representatives: About three-quarters of Democrats have a favorable view of congressional Democrats (73% vs. 23%) and four in five Republicans have a favorable view of congressional Republicans (80% vs. 16%).
Majorities of Independents have unfavorable views of both congressional Democrats and congressional Republicans.
For years, both parties in Congress have received net negative favorability in every Economist / YouGov Poll that has asked.
Image: Getty (Anna Moneymaker / Staff)
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