Only one-quarter of Americans say the U.S. won the war in Iran

This week's Economist/YouGov Poll finds that Americans are eager to end the war with Iran and they generally favor several of the provisions included in a proposed peace agreement. At the same time, views on the overall deal are divided and many are doubtful that it will result in lasting peace.

Two-thirds (66%) of Americans — including 74% of Democrats and 61% of Republicans — think the U.S. should make a deal to end the war with Iran as quickly as possible and the vast majority (89%) have heard at least a little about a recent plan to do so. Overall opinions on the deal the U.S. struck with Iran are mixed: 32% support it, 24% are opposed, and 44% aren't sure about it. Republicans are far more likely to support the deal (53%) than are Democrats (21%) and Independents (23%). Republicans who say they support MAGA are nearly twice as likely to support the Iran deal than are Republicans who don't support MAGA (63% vs. 34%).

There is somewhat more support for specific terms of the deal: 69% of Americans support Iran promising that it will not develop nuclear weapons and the U.S. and Iran negotiating the disposition of Iran’s enriched uranium; 69% support reopening the Strait of Hormuz with toll-free commercial passage for 60 days; and 41% support the U.S. lifting all sanctions on Iranian crude oil exports and unfreezing billions of dollars of Iranian assets while only 27% oppose it. Only 23% support the U.S. and its partners developing a plan to provide Iran with $300 billion for reconstruction and economic development. Opinions on the specific terms of the deal are far less politically polarized than are views on the deal overall.

53% of Americans — including 46% of Democrats and 66% of Republicans — think the U.S. should have insisted that Iran give up its missiles as part of any deal it strikes with the U.S; only 18% of Americans don't think it should have insisted.

Most Americans (54%) are unsure whether the deal with Iran is good or bad for Israel; similar shares say it is good for Israel as say it is bad for Israel (24% vs. 22%). 58% say American leaders should pursue an agreement with Iran that would be beneficial to the U.S. even if the Israeli government opposes it; 10% think they should not do so. Far more think that Donald Trump has been too supportive of Israel in the war with Iran than say he has been not supportive enough (36% vs. 9%); 27% say he has been about right.

As for expectations for the future, two-thirds (67%) of Americans think Iran will attempt to develop nuclear weapons; only 7% don't think it will. Few (16%) expect that the Strait of Hormuz will remain open permanently. A large majority (81%) — including 87% of Democrats and 75% of Republicans — think it is very or somewhat likely that negotiations with Iran will fail and the war will restart.

In their opinions of who won the war, Americans are mixed: 25% say the U.S. did, 22% say Iran did, and 41% think neither side was the winner. The majority (54%) of Republicans believe the U.S. won, while 5% say Iran did and 31% say neither side did. Among Democrats, only 7% think the U.S. won, while 36% say Iran did and 45% think neither side did.

In mid-May, far more Americans expected a victory for the U.S. than for Iran (37% vs. 13%); 29% predicted neither side would win.

Only 26% of Americans think that in hindsight going to war with Iran was the right decision; twice as many (54%) say it was the wrong decision. 61% of Republicans but only 5% of Democrats think it was the right decision. 84% of Democrats and 18% of Republicans say it was wrong.

Image: Getty (Pool / Pool)

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