Trump's approval jumped. Will it last?

After weeks in the doldrums, Donald Trump's job approval rebounded in this week's Economist / YouGov Poll to its highest level in three months — though he remains unpopular. 39% of U.S. adult citizens strongly or somewhat approve of Trump's job performance, and 56% disapprove, for a net job approval of -17. Last week, 35% approved and 60% disapproved for a net approval of -25.

The 39% who approve of Trump's job handling right now is slightly lower than the 42% who approved at this point in Trump's first term and the 41% who approved of Joe Biden's job handling at this point in his term.

The increase in Trump's net job approval from -25 to -17 is one of the largest one-week changes in Trump's net approval in weekly Economist / YouGov polls in either Trump term. Only three prior polls had equal or larger swings from the prior week, all of them in Trump's first term. In two of them, Trump's approval rose by 8 or more points, and in one it fell by 8 or more. (Three other weeks had changes of 8 points in Trump net approval but the changes were smaller than this week's before rounding.)

What's still unclear is whether this week's jump in Trump's job approval represents a real change in public opinion, or simply reflects normal survey variation. Most changes are at least somewhat reversed the following week. In Economist / YouGov polls throughout Trump's two terms, when Trump's approval has gone up from the prior week, it has gone down in the next poll 65% of the time. The inverse is also true: When Trump's approval has fallen from the previous week, it goes up the next week 62% of the time.

A reversal of a recent change in Trump's job approval has been especially likely when the change has been big. When Trump's net approval has fallen by 4 percentage points or more, it has gone up the next week 76% of the time, and when it has risen by 4 points or more, it has gone down the next week 81% of the time.

If the next several Economist / YouGov polls show continued increases in Trump's job approval, or stabilize at this week's higher level, that would suggest this week's poll represents a real change in public opinion. If they show a return to the lower job approval of recent weeks, that would suggest this week's poll is an outlier.

By a three-week rolling average, which smooths out weekly variation, Trump's job approval is up 3 points from last week, but remains well below levels from both a month ago and at this point in his first term.

Trump's job-approval increase this week wasn't driven by a rise in any one demographic. Instead, his approval went up among all major age groups, among men and women, and among Democrats, Independents, and Republicans.

49% of Americans say Trump is too old to be president, while 40% say he isn't. Neither of these numbers has changed much in recent months.

Image: Getty (Anna Moneymaker / Staff)

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