YouGov Business Volatility, Uncertainty, Complexity, and Ambiguity Index (VUCA): January-February 2026

YouGov launches a quarterly index tracking how small, medium and large-sized UK business are adversely affected by Volatility, Uncertainty, Complexity, or Ambiguity (VUCA).  

The last decade has seen a pandemic, the UK’s departure from the European Union, six different Prime Ministers, and an uncertain economic picture, among other things. But to what extent, if at all, are British enterprises feeling the impact of these shifts and changes in the commercial landscape?

New quarterly YouGov polling explores how businesses are coping with the negative impact of four key measures: Volatility, Uncertainty, Complexity, and Ambiguity. Alongside providing a score for each of these measures, we have also identified an overall Index score (VUCA) that combines each of these metrics. 

Our data shows a headline figure of 41.8 for all businesses, with scores of 51.2 for Volatility, 45 for Uncertainty, 35.8 for Complexity, and 35.1 for Ambiguity. Breaking this down according to business size suggests that the larger the company, the higher the VUCA score. This raises a question: Are larger companies more likely to feel the pressures than smaller businesses or more likely to notice them?

Whatever the answer, it’s clear that microbusinesses reported the lowest overall scores (35), with smaller enterprises employing 10-49 people ranking second lowest (39). Medium-sized (44.4) and larger businesses (47.0) were more likely to have reported higher combined Volatility, Uncertainty, Complexity and Ambiguity. For all but medium-sized enterprises (who are most likely to report adverse impact from Uncertainty), Volatility presented the most significant impact.

Across all industries, VUCA scores appear most influenced by Volatility and Uncertainty, with Ambiguity and Complexity playing a more secondary role (in the case of Volatility in particular, the impact may be more immediately obvious than it is for other measures).

Certain industries are feeling the effects more than others. Transport and distribution decision makers, perhaps partially due to rising tariffs, reported the highest overall VUCA score (55.6). Among industries, IT & Telecoms (50.3) business decision makers also reporting higher than average VUCA scores. 

On a more positive note: businesses were still more likely to say they hold a positive outlook for the next 12 months than a negative one (42% vs. 25%), and they remain more confident than not that they can operate effectively in an environment affected by volatility, uncertainty, complexity, and ambiguity (55% vs. 13%). 

Methodology

Data is based on a survey of 509 UK business decision makers conducted between January and February 2026. Respondents were asked to what extent volatility, uncertainty, complexity and ambiguity negatively affect their business. Responses were converted into an index score from 0 to 100, where 0 indicates no negative impact and 100 indicates a great deal of negative impact. The overall VUCA score is calculated as the average of the four components.