Americans suddenly are more likely to see the economy getting worse

With gas prices rising due to the U.S. conflict with Iran, Americans are quickly becoming more negative about the U.S. economy. This week's Economist / YouGov Poll finds 59% of Americans say the economy is getting worse, in response to a question asked almost every week since 2017. That's the highest share to say this on any Economist / YouGov Poll since October 2022, and is up from 53% last week. The 6-point jump in one week is large: Only seven Economist / YouGov Polls since 2017 have recorded larger one-week jumps in the share of Americans saying the economy is getting worse. Four of those seven were in spring 2020, when the U.S. economy ground to a halt after the arrival of COVID-19.

The share of Americans who say the economy is getting better fell to 16% from 20% last week. That's the lowest share of Americans to say this since spring 2024.

Weekly indicators on the poll can fluctuate, and big one-week moves can reverse the following week. That has happened at times with Donald Trump job approval.

Almost all Democrats say the economy is getting worse, as was true last week (86% say this now, 85% said so last week). The rise in Americans saying the economy is getting worse is driven by Independents (66% this week, 56% last week) and Republicans (24% vs. 18%). 18% of Republicans who say they're MAGA supporters say the economy is getting worse, up from 11%; 41% of non-MAGA Republicans say this, up from 30%.

Responses to other economic questions on this week's survey also show rising concern about the economy. 30% of Americans expect that a year from now their household will be worse off financially, up from 23% last week. The share saying they expect to be better off financially has fallen to 23% from 25%.

The 7-point gap between the shares of Americans who expect to be worse off financially and of those who expect to be better off is the largest in any Economist / YouGov Poll since it began asking this question almost every week in July 2024.

Almost all Americans say gas prices are rising. 55% say gas prices are rising a lot in their area, while 32% say they're rising a little. Only 4% say gas prices are falling a little or a lot.

This week's poll finds a strong correlation between how Americans view gas prices and how they view the overall economy. Among Americans who say gas prices are up a lot, 76% say the economy is getting worse — compared to only 39% of those who say gas prices are up a little.

Democrats are more likely than Republicans to say gas prices are up a lot, but the relationship between views on gas prices and the economy holds among Republicans, too. 15% of Republicans who say gas prices are up a little also say the economy is getting worse, compared to 36% of Republicans who say gas prices are up a lot. And the effect isn't driven by MAGA support: Republicans who are and aren't supporters of MAGA are equally likely to say gas prices are going up a lot, and to say they're going up a little.

The correlation between these two survey questions does not necessarily mean that belief about gas prices are causing beliefs about the overall economy.

Image: Getty (Brandon Bell / Staff)

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