Democrats' lead for Congress has narrowed

This week's Economist / YouGov Poll finds that 45% of registered voters say they would vote for the Democratic candidate for Congress if the election were held today, while 42% say they would vote for the Republican candidate. This 3-point Democratic lead is among Democrats' smallest advantages on congressional vote intention in months; 4- or 5-point Democratic leads have been more common, and Democrats have occasionally led by 6 or 7 points.

Democrats' 3-point lead is only slightly larger than the 2-point lead Democrats had at this point in the 2022 and 2024 elections. In both of those elections, Republicans won small majorities in the U.S. House of Representatives.

The shrinking Democratic lead isn't because fewer registered voters plan to vote for Democrats in the 2026 midterms. Since the February 6 - 9, 2026 Economist / YouGov Poll, support for Democrats has risen to 45% from 44%. But support for Republicans has risen by more, to 42% from 38%. The share of registered voters who say that they don't know for which party's candidate they'd vote for Congress, that they'd vote for another candidate, or that they wouldn't vote has fallen to 13% from 17% over the same span.

Republicans trail by only 3 points on the congressional ballot even though the share of registered voters who disapprove of Trump's job performance is 13 points lower than the share who approve, amounting to a net approval of -13. (Among all U.S. adult citizens, Trump's net job approval is -18.)

Democratic congressional candidates have a 79% to 6% advantage among the 56% of voters who strongly or somewhat disapprove of Trump's job performance. But Republicans have an even bigger lead of 85% to 3% among registered voters who don't disapprove of Trump's job performance, including a lead of 88% to 3% among registered voters who approve of Trump's job handling and of 53% to 13% among voters who say they aren't sure whether they approve or disapprove of Trump's job handling.

Trump gets even lower marks for his handling of economic areas than for his overall job handling. Trump is at record lows for his second term for net approval of his handling of the economy (-25) and foreign policy (-17), and near a record low for his handling of inflation (-34).

Republicans are currently winning the votes of a small but significant share of voters who disapprove of how Trump is handling these issues. For example, 13% of registered voters who disapprove of how Trump is handling the economy say they'll vote for a Republican candidate for Congress, while only 3% of those who approve of Trump's handling of the economy say they'll vote for a Democrat.

Image: Getty (Kamil Krzaczynski / Stringer)

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