How Desperados drives premium growth in a declining market with YouGov Shopper Intelligence

Business challenge

Beer is deeply embedded in Belgian culture, but the category is under pressure. Declining volumes and waning interest – especially among younger (LDA+) consumers – reflect a broader shift driven by greater awareness of alcohol consumption and the growing popularity of alcohol-free alternatives. Younger consumers are also turning to energy drinks, mocktails, and premixed drinks, further accelerating the beer category’s decline.

Alken-Maes, Belgium’s second-largest brewery and part of the global Heineken group, brews 14 different beer brands, with Desperados as one of the focus brands. To drive premium growth and stay relevant to evolving tastes, Desperados expanded its portfolio with innovative new concepts. The brand needed to demonstrate how this broader assortment was delivering incremental growth – not just for Desperados, but for the wider category.

Solution & research results

To prove the incremental value of its portfolio expansion, Alken-Maes utilized - Assortment Optimizer, part of YouGov Category management solutions, to measure buyer incrementality. The analysis compared buyer build-up before and after the assortment expansion to quantify the impact of each new product.

The findings revealed the unique contribution of each SKU within the Desperados portfolio:

• Desperados Original 6-pack remains the hero SKU, maintaining leadership even after switching to returnable bottles.
• Desperados 4-pack drives new shopper recruitment despite lower volumes.
• Desperados Virgin 0.0% delivers strong incrementality by attracting younger (LDA+), health-conscious consumers moving away from traditional beer.
• Flavor variants encourage variety-seeking behavior among loyal buyers, increasing purchase frequency and volume per buyer.

Through this analysis, Alken-Maes demonstrated the incremental contribution of each product to both brand and category growth. Ongoing behavioral data from YouGov Shopper Intelligence continues to help the brand monitor trends and keep the category future-ready.

Business outcome / impact

Insights from the Assortment Optimizer analysis were instrumental in reassuring that every SKU has added value in the assortment and guiding strategic assortment decisions. As a result, Desperados has more than doubled its buyer base, now reaching more than 1 in 10 Belgian shoppers. Growth has been particularly strong among younger adults (18-30 years old), reflecting the brand’s renewed relevance with the next generation of beer drinkers.