Labour lost almost four times as many voters to the Greens than to Reform UK

Key takeaways

  • Just 46% of 2024 Labour voters who voted in this May’s council elections were loyal to the party, with more switching to the Greens (22%) than Reform UK (6%)
  • 55% of voting 2024 Conservatives stuck with their previous choice, while a third instead voted for Reform UK
  • Those who voted Reform UK are particularly likely to say they made their choice because of the performance of the national government
  • Four in ten Labour and Lib Dem voters say wanting to stop another party from winning was one of the top reasons they voted the way they did

As the dust settles on the 2026 English local elections, new YouGov polling of 1,173 people who were likely to vote in the elections examines the dynamics behind what was ultimately a dramatic and highly consequential set of results.

Elections took place a fortnight ago across much of England, though were skewed towards urban areas where Labour had previously held the most seats by a clear margin. In the event, the party lost 58% of the seats it was defending, a bad result even by the standards of unpopular governments, while Reform UK and the Greens made significant gains at their expense.

Much of the political discussion since has focused on how the Labour party should respond to what was undoubtedly a drubbing – including whether or not they should replace Keir Starmer as leader and prime minister. Understanding where Labour defectors went, and in what numbers, is an important part of any such conversations.

Our new data suggests that just 46% of 2024 Labour voters who voted at the 2026 local elections stayed loyal to the party this time around, with roughly one in five (22%) instead backing the Greens and around one in six (16%) voting for the Liberal Democrats. Smaller numbers switched to Reform UK (6%), the Conservatives (5%), or independents, local groups and minor parties (5%).

These figures are in line with analysis of the results data at ward level, which suggest that the Greens did better the more Labour fell back. Labour’s almost 4:1 ratio of voters lost to the Greens versus defecting to Reform UK is significantly greater than we see in our nationwide polling, but this will be driven in part by the high concentration of urban, Green-friendly areas up for election on 7 May.

Of course, the Conservatives also suffered significant losses in these elections, losing 41% of the seats they were defending. For their part, we estimate that they held on to 55% of their 2024 voters who headed to the polls this month. However, no fewer than one in three (33%) instead switched to Reform UK.

Again, this is consistent with analysis of the results at ward level, which suggests a strong relationship between increasing Reform performance and greater decreases in the Conservative vote share.

The Lib Dems likewise kept hold of 55% of their 2024 voters who voted two weeks ago, with a fifth (21%) instead backing the Greens this time around, alongside 6-8% backing each of the other three major national parties.

Reform UK and the Greens’ 2024 voters are much less likely to have changed parties, with nearly nine in ten of those who voted (85-89%) putting their cross next to the same party they did at the general election.

Why did voters vote the way they did in the 2026 local elections?

The most common ‘top’ reason local election voters gave for their choice on 7 May is that the party in question is the one which “best represents my values”, at 43%. Having the best policies on key local issues was cited as a major influence by 29%, with the same number also saying a primary motivation was to stop a party they disliked from winning.

Nearly a quarter of voters (23%) said that the performance of the national government was key to how they cast their ballot in the local elections, while the performance of their local council was a top reason for 20%.

Reform UK voters appear to have been the most likely to use the local elections as a protest against the national government, with almost half of their 2026 voters (46%) telling us that how well or badly the UK government was doing was one of the main factors in deciding their choice. This compares to no more than a fifth of those who opted for the other four nationwide parties.

Around six in ten of those who voted Green this year (59%) say that it was because the party was the choice that best represented their values, with around half of Labour voters (49%) saying the same.

The Liberal Democrats and Labour look to have been beneficiaries of tactical voting, with four in ten who voted for either party (39-41%) telling us that stopping a party they disliked from winning was one of the main reasons they voted the way they did.

See the full results here

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