Andy Burnham top choice for leader among members, even if 66% think Keir Starmer is doing a good job

Key takeaways

  • Most Labour members think Wes Streeting was wrong to resign as health secretary (57%) and would rather Starmer beat Streeting in a leadership challenge by 65% to 15%
  • Nearly half of members (47%) rank Andy Burnham as their first preference for Labour leadership, compared to 31% for Starmer. 59% rank Burnham above Starmer in their preferences for leader
  • While 66% of party members believe Starmer has done a good job as prime minister, just 28% think Labour are likely to win in 2029 if he stays leader, and 61% want him to stand down before the next general election
  • 80% of Labour members say the party has done a good job in government

Following Labour’s significant losses in the local and devolved elections, a question mark hangs over the future of Keir Starmer’s leadership, with dozens of Labour MPs calling on the prime minister to quit, most notably Wes Streeting, who resigned as health secretary. Furthermore, onetime Starmer ally Josh Simons has resigned his Makerfield seat, triggering a by-election in which potential leadership challenger Andy Burnham is expected to stand as the Labour candidate.

Nonetheless, Keir Starmer has said he intends to stay put and “get on with governing”, while around 100 other Labour MPs have signed a letter in support of him remaining prime minister. With the leadership such an open question, and one on which Labour party members have a high chance of having the final say, a new YouGov survey of 706 Labour members examines their views on Starmer’s performance as PM and his potential challengers.

Labour members say Wes Streeting was wrong to resign as health secretary – and would vote against him in a leadership contest

While it was backbencher Catherine West who issued the first public challenge to Starmer’s leadership, it was Streeting’s resignation that posed the first heavyweight threat, even if it has since appeared that he lacks the support to issue a direct challenge to the PM (which would require the backing of 81 MPs).

The Ilford MP finds little support among the membership too, with 57% saying his resignation was the wrong move. Only 25% say that he was right to quit the cabinet.

Indeed, in head-to-heads against Starmer and other potential challengers, the former health secretary comes in for a battering.

Were there a direct contest between Starmer and Streeting, the prime minister would win handily, with 65% of Labour members saying they would vote for the current occupant of Number 10, versus only 15% who would seek to replace him with Streeting.

Likewise, in alternative contests, Wes Streeting loses by wide margins to each of Andy Burnham (who would be backed by 80% of Labour members to Streeting’s 10%), Angela Rayner (by 70% to 19%) and Ed Miliband (by 58% to 28%).

Labour members say Keir Starmer should take part in any forthcoming leadership contest – but also say they would vote to replace him with Andy Burnham

If Streeting looks unlikely to replace Starmer, might other candidates?

First is the question of whether the party membership wants Starmer to stand in the first place. On that question, the answer is yes: 56% say the incumbent leader should participate in any election, with only 36% saying he should step aside and allow other candidates to duke it out among themselves.

This is perhaps cruel on the part of the membership, given that they also admit that they would eject Starmer in favour of Andy Burnham in the event of a contest between the two. Almost six in ten Labour members (59%) say they would back Burnham against Starmer, with only 37% saying they would vote to keep the prime minister in place.

This head-to-head figure was derived by asking Labour members to rank eight potential leadership contenders in order, after which we calculated scores based on the % of times each candidate was ranked higher than another. Looking at the full set of this data, we can see that Burnham and Starmer dominate the results: 47% of members rank Burnham as their first choice, followed by 31% for Starmer. Third-placed Angela Rayner trails behind on just 8%.

Party members do not think Labour can win re-election if Starmer remains in charge – but they do think they can if Burnham takes over

Ultimately, party members do not think that Labour will win the next election if Starmer sticks around. Just 28% think they are likely to be returned to Downing Street if their current party leader is still living there, 57% see their re-election odds as poor if he remains.

By contrast, fully 74% think the party is likely to win in 2029 if Andy Burnham takes over. This far surpasses optimism about other potential leadership contenders - the membership are divided 41% to 45% on the party’s chances under Angela Rayner, while most say it is unlikely that Labour will win the next election under Yvette Cooper (51%), Ed Miliband (58%) or Wes Streeting (61%).

As a result, it is perhaps no surprise that only a minority in the party want Starmer to see out his term as prime minister. Although 61% of members say they would like Starmer to remain as leader for now, this includes just 28% who would like him to lead the party into the next general election, with the other 33% wanting him to step down at some later point in this parliament.

A further 33% don’t want the party to wait that long, instead wanting Starmer to step down as leader now or in the next few months.

Favourability ratings of Labour figures among party members, May 2026

While Andy Burnham clearly dominates preferences for a new leader, that is not to say that other key figures are unpopular among the membership.

Indeed, similar numbers of members have a favourable view of Andy Burnham (77%), Angela Rayner (80%), Ed Miliband (77%) and Yvette Cooper (73%) – although Burnham’s 43% “very favourable” rating far outstrips those of his competitors.

Keir Starmer and Rachel Reeves are both seen positively by around two thirds of party members (65-66%), though with 29-33% viewing each unfavourably. Meanwhile, the membership are divided 39% to 46% in their opinion of home secretary Shabana Mahmood and see Wes Streeting negatively by 60% to 35%.

While some in the Westminster bubble clearly relish the prospect of a challenge by outsider Al Carns, the junior defence minister appears largely unknown to the Labour membership, with 70% saying they don’t know how they feel about him.

How do Labour members feel the party are doing in government?

The fact that Labour members think the party is unlikely to win the next election under Starmer, and seek to replace him as leader, does not reflect a belief that the prime minister has done a poor job in government.

Two thirds of party (66%) believe Starmer is doing a good job as prime minister, even if a third (32%) think he’s done a bad job at Number 10. These numbers are the reverse of the wider public’s view, with Britons seeing Starmer as doing a bad job as prime minister by 70% to 22%.

Again, while Britons as a whole (including those who voted for Labour at the last election) mostly disapprove of the government’s record in office so far, party members are much more positive. Fully 80% think Labour has overall done a good job in government, though 19% do believe the party has done a bad job.

This positivity about the Starmer government extends across most areas of policy, with at least 55% saying the government have done well in each area polled, rising as high as 87% when it comes to the NHS and 91% on workers’ rights.

The cost of living is the issue on which members are most critical of the government’s record, with 40% believing Labour have handled the matter badly. Significant minorities also feel the party have done a bad job on the issues of poverty (31%), housing (29%) and immigration (24%).

See the full results here

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