Though split on whether Burnham looks like prime ministerial material, Britons tend to think he’s done a good job as mayor of Greater Manchester

Key takeaways

  • Britons tend to believe Andy Burnham has done a good job as mayor of Greater Manchester, by 44% to 12%
  • 71% of people who live in North West England think Burnham has done well as mayor of Greater Manchester
  • The public are split 33% to 33% on whether Burnham looks like a PM in waiting
  • Britons tend to see Burnham as competent, likeable and decisive, but are divided over whether he is trustworthy or untrustworthy

It’s no secret that Andy Burnham’s run for parliament in the Makerfield by-election is about more than just becoming an MP, with expectations that – if he wins – he will challenge Keir Starmer for the position of prime minister. But do Britons believe that Burnham has what it takes for the top job?

From what they’ve seen and heard, Britons tend to believe that Burnham has done well in his current job as mayor of Greater Manchester, with 44% saying so, relative to just 12% who’ve gained the impression he’s done poorly. A further 44% are unsure about his mayoral performance.

Although this poll is not a large enough sample to examine Burnham’s reputation in Greater Manchester alone, fully 71% of those in the wider North West England region think he has done well as mayor of its largest metropolis, while just 14% believe he’s done a bad job.

His reputation as an effective mayor includes 66% of those who voted Labour in 2024, as well as 56% of those who backed the Lib Dems and 51% of those who voted Green. Conservative voters also tend to believe Burnham has been a good mayor, by 41% to 19%, while Reform UK voters are split 33% to 31% on his effectiveness.

Whether Burnham’s ready for a promotion, though, divides the public, with the third of Britons (33%) who believe that he does look like a prime minister in waiting matched by an opposing 33% who do not feel he looks prime ministerial at present.

Labour, Lib Dem and Green voters are again more positive about Burnham’s abilities, though only between 41-48% currently see him as a prime minister in waiting, while 24-26% do not. By contrast, a majority of Conservative and Reform UK voters (52-58%) feel he does not look ready to enter No10, even if around a quarter (24-27%) do.

While the public might not be sold on Burnham as a prime minister, opinion on whether he is up to the job does compare favourably to opposition leader Kemi Badenoch. Even if belief she looks like a prime minister in waiting has increased in recent months, half of Britons (50%) still think Badenoch does not look prime ministerial, twice the 25% who believe she does.

How does public opinion of Andy Burnham compare to opinion of Keir Starmer?

Of course, in many respects, the most relevant comparison for Andy Burnham is Keir Starmer, the man he seeks to replace.

Prior to Starmer entering Downing Street, the public were likewise divided over whether he looked like a prime minister in waiting, though with a greater 40% seeing him as having what it takes for the job, relative to 41% believing he did not. This included having convinced 69% of 2019 Labour voters that he looked like a prime minister in the wings by June 2024, a figure some 21 points greater than Burnham with the equivalent past Labour voters today.

Nonetheless, wider opinion towards Burnham is somewhat more positive than that towards Starmer both then and now.

Around four in ten Britons (39-43%) describe Andy Burnham as competent, likeable and decisive, relative to 15-22% viewing him as holding the opposite qualities. A lower 27% see the Greater Manchester mayor as trustworthy, roughly equal to the 28% who see him as untrustworthy.

By comparison, even prior to Starmer entering Downing Street, the public were already divided 38% to 36% over whether or not he was competent, while tending to see him as dislikeable (by 44% to 31%) and indecisive (49% to 26%). Plus, while the 27% of Britons who saw Starmer as trustworthy in June 2024 might be identical to the proportion that view Burnham as such today, a much greater 47% saw the then PM-to-be as untrustworthy.

The contrast is even sharper when comparing to Starmer’s image today, with the prime minister now seen as incompetent, dislikeable and untrustworthy by 59-60% of Britons, as well as indecisive by 74%.

See the full results here

See what Britons say about Andy Burnham in their own words here

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