Nonetheless, Labour members would like any new party leader to move the party to the left

Key takeaways

  • Labour members are more likely to believe Reform UK (53%) are a bigger threat to the party than the Greens (15%) nationally
  • 53% of Labour members believe that a new leader should take the party in a more left-wing direction
  • Three quarters of members (73%) would like a new Labour leader to rejoin at least the EU single market or customs union
  • Just 26% of party members feel Labour should adopt a more liberal immigration policy

The local elections at the start of the month saw Labour lose thousands of councillors across England. While it was Reform UK that took the most seats off the party, the Greens were also victorious in hundreds of previously Labour seats in areas like London.

Nonetheless, this doesn’t inherently reflect the pattern of how Labour’s vote has fragmented in recent years, with our voting intention tracker consistently showing Labour losing more voters to the Greens, at a rate roughly double their losses to Reform UK and the Lib Dems.

Nonetheless, roughly half of Labour members (53%) believe that Labour face a bigger threat in terms of losing votes from Reform UK, with just 15% thinking that it is voter losses to the Greens that are the greater issue. A further 27% feel that losses to both are equally threatening to the Labour party.

The picture is a little different when members think just about their local area, with a lower 44% feeling that it is losing voters to Reform UK that has been more costly for Labour in their area, relative to 33% who think the Greens pose the biggest threat to Labour where they live.

This difference is most notable in London, where members believe Reform UK is the bigger threat nationally by a margin of 58% to 6%, but it is the Greens who are the bigger threat locally by 65% to 15% (although please note the smaller sample size of 95). By contrast, in the North of England, Reform UK are seen as the bigger threat by similar margins both nationally (56% to 15%) and in members’ respective local areas (56% to 19%).

Where would Labour members want the next leader to take the party?

Separate data from this poll has revealed that only 28% think Keir Starmer should lead the party into the next election, with the same number saying that the party is unlikely to win if he remains in charge. With Starmer looking likely to face a leadership challenge in coming months – one that he may very well lose – what direction do Labour members think the party should take in the event of a new leader?

In terms of the party’s overall politics, just over half of Labour members (53%) believe that any new Labour leader should take the party in a more left-wing direction, relative to 21% who would like to keep the party roughly where it is now and 19% who think a new leader should move the party towards a more centrist position.

This includes nearly half of Labour members (47%) believing that a new leader should seek to relax Rachel Reeves’ pledge not to increase taxes and borrowing, compared to 37% who feel the party should maintain their 2024 election promise on the issue.

Members would like an even clearer break from the party’s current direction when it comes to Europe, with a mere 3% of members thinking a new leader should look to maintain the status quo on Britain’s current relationship with the EU.

Even expanding the definition of the party’s current direction to include Keir Starmer’s non-specific statements about pursuing a closer relationship, just 20% of Labour members believe the UK should look to become closer to the EU without rejoining core facets like the single market or customs union.

Indeed, nearly three quarters of Labour members (73%) would like any new leader to at least try and take the UK back into the EU’s single market or customs union, including 40% who would like the UK to fully rejoin the Union as a whole. This stands at odds with Andy Burnham’s latest statement that he would not seek to return the UK to the EU.

But the membership doesn’t want Labour to move in a more left-wing or liberal direction in every respect, with just a quarter of members (26%) believing a new leader should pursue a more welcoming immigration policy. This compares to 44% who would like to see Shabana Mahmood’s current approach to immigration remain in place and a further 18% feel the party should take a more restrictive approach to immigration.

See the full results here

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Photo: Getty

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