Reform UK are in contention to win the highest vote share in every council in the region

Key takeaways

  • Reform UK are expected to make significant gains in the West Midlands on 7 May, being in contention to top the poll in all 13 council areas according to our central projections, including double-digit vote share leads in seven
  • Labour and the Conservatives are set to suffer significant losses, with both projected to see their support drop by more than 20 points on multiple councils if the vote were happening today
  • The Greens are also set for big gains, including in Birmingham and Coventry, which our model suggests are close three-horse races between them, Labour and Reform UK

YouGov’s latest MRP model for the 2026 local elections, covering councils up for election in the West Midlands, projects significant gains for Reform UK across the region, with Labour and the Conservatives both suffering significant losses in what was once prime swing territory between the two parties. But while Nigel Farage’s party is on course for clear victories in some districts, margins in many of the councils in the West Midlands metropolitan county are tight.

The model, which uses data from more than 2,000 adults in the relevant West Midlands council areas in fieldwork from 27 March - 27 April, projects vote shares for each of the parties in 13 authorities going to the polls on 7 May. With some races being so close, and with a mixture of local authorities up for election in parts or as a whole, we are not projecting seat wins and council control as in previous years, but are instead focussing on support for the parties. The map below shows which party, according to our MRP model, we believe will emerge on the night with the largest vote share.

According to the central vote share projections of our model, the councils up for election in the West Midlands fall into two categories. The first are areas where Reform UK are clearly ahead, which includes double-digit leads for the party in Cannock Chase, Dudley, Newcastle-under-Lyme, Nuneaton, Redditch, Tamworth and Walsall, as well as a six point lead in Rugby.

The second category are tighter races, where there is a margin of five percentage points or less between the first-placed and second-placed parties in our median projection. This includes Labour and Reform UK being neck-and-neck in both Sandwell and Wolverhampton, a close race between the Conservatives and Reform UK in Solihull, and particularly narrow three-way contests between Labour, Reform UK and the Greens in Birmingham (where we also project gains for independents and candidates for smaller parties) and Coventry.

Overall, the MRP model’s central projection expects that Reform UK will win the highest vote share in 11 of the 13 councils, with Labour topping the poll in the other two, even if the margins are small in many cases.

The last time these councils were contested, which was variously 2022 or 2024, Labour won the highest vote share in nine of them, with the Conservatives emerging as the most popular party in the other four, though like today, some of those were very close races too.

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The central story of this set of projections is one of substantial gains for Reform UK, who in many cases are starting from next to 0% of the vote at the previous elections. In our median figures, the party are on course to win a 30% share across the 13 councils, including winning as high as 45% in Cannock Chase, as well as 43% in the districts centred on Nuneaton and Tamworth.

That Labour was winning these councils prior to the last general election was a key indicator that they were on course to win a landslide majority. While Reform UK now winning them does not necessarily mean the same for Nigel Farage’s party, as their corresponding Westminster constituencies are higher up Reform UK’s target list, such gains would show just how far British politics has shifted in the last two years.

Labour themselves are set to suffer seismic losses across the board, with their vote projected to fall by more than 20 percentage points in ten of the 13 councils. This includes Labour’s vote share falling by 30 points since 2022 in Birmingham, an identical amount since 2024 in Tamworth, and by as much as 32 points since 2024 in the Sandwell local authority, which is centred on the town of West Bromwich.

The Conservatives likewise are on track for big drops in support everywhere, from their long-standing stronghold of Solihull, where they are projected to drop by 24 points, through to their more recent ‘red wall’ gain of Newcastle-under-Lyme, where they are forecast to fall by up to 31 points.

Reform UK aren’t the only party making gains: the model projects that the Greens are also on track for double-digit vote share increases on most of the West Midlands councils being contested this year. This would take them to around a fifth of the vote (19-21%) in Birmingham, Newcastle-under-Lyme, Sandwell and Wolverhampton, according to the central projections, and to as high as 24% in Coventry.

Across the whole region, Zack Polanski’s party are projected to win 18% of the vote, putting them in a similar territory to the Conservatives (17%) and Labour (21%).

Independents are set to put in strong performances on both Walsall council, where they have already had some success in local elections, and in Birmingham, where they are yet to do so. On both councils, our model has other parties and independents at 14% of the vote in its median projection.

The West Midlands have never been enormously fertile ground for the Lib Dems, a trend that our MRP predicts will remain true this year. Ed Davey’s party are on track for a 9% vote share across these 13 councils, with mostly modest changes since they were last contested.

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Of course, the model overall projects a range of the outcomes, with higher and lower estimates for each party. These express the uncertainty that the model has around what will be a fluid and closely fought set of elections up and down the country.

According to these estimates, a disappointing night for Farage and his party could see them in a much closer contest with some or all of Labour, the Greens, and the Conservatives if they perform more toward our higher-end estimates.

See the full results here

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