Andy Burnham outperforms all other potential leadership contenders

Key takeaways

  • Most Britons (58%) say Keir Starmer has been a "poor" or "terrible" prime minister
  • One in three Britons (34%) say Andy Burnham would do a better job than Starmer
  • All other potential contenders come far behind Burnham, including 15% for Angela Rayner and 13% for Ed Miliband and Wes Streeting
  • 26% of Britons think Burnham would be a great/good prime minister in his own right, compared to 18% 'average' and 19% poor or terrible

Despite having been elected with a landslide majority less than two years ago, much of Keir Starmer’s time in office has been spent with the threat of replacement looming over his head. Indeed, aside from a desire to get past the difficult local elections next month, the main obstacle to the prime minister’s replacement appears largely to be the inability among PLP ranks to agree on a successor.

Certainly, the public would prefer Starmer to stand down (50%) than to stay in post (31%). Even among 2024 Labour voters, one in three (36%) want to see Starmer depart.

The public has a critical view of Starmer’s time in charge, with most Britons describing him as either a terrible prime minister (35%) or a poor one (23%). A further 27% consider him ‘average’, while just one in ten feel he has been good (9%) or great (1%) in the role.

Among those who voted to put Starmer in Number 10 in 2024, the plurality view is that he has been average (42%), with the number believing him to have done badly (34%) outweighing the number who think he has done well (21%).

Yet for all the poor reviews of the prime minister, few Britons see any of his most likely successors as superior options.

Andy Burnham is the only likely Labour alternative for prime minister that a significant number of Britons think would do a better job. However, this still only amounts to around a third of the public (34%), including only 11% who expect the Manchester mayor to do a “much better” job.

A further 17% think Burnham would put in a comparable performance to Starmer – hardly a reassuring sentiment for the mayor, given how poorly the public think the PM has done – while only 13% think he would actively be worse.

Trailing much further behind are former deputy prime minister Angela Rayner, of whom only 15% think will do better, as well as energy secretary Ed Miliband (13%) and health secretary Wes Streeting (13%).

Farther behind still are foreign secretary Yvette Cooper (9%) and home secretary Shabana (also 9%), while deputy prime minister David Lammy comes last, with just 3% having thinking he would outperform the man whose job he deputises.

For all of these figures other than Burnham, the number of Britons who think they would do a worse job than Starmer significantly outweigh the portion who think they would be an improvement.

Those who backed Labour in 2024 take slightly more positive views, although opinion is still largely lukewarm.

Burnham proves again to be the only figure for whom Labour voters expect a better showing (41%) than an inferior one (9%). Labour voters are split three ways over Rayner and Miliband, although in both cases only 23-25% think they would be better than Starmer, while more see Cooper, Streeting, Mahmood and Lammy as liabilities than assets.

It is one thing to be branded ‘better than Starmer’, but for many that might amount to being damned with faint praise. So how many Britons think each of the potential contenders would actually be good prime ministers in their own right?

Ultimately, the figures drop a little compared to the prior question, with the broader trends remaining the same. Burnham stands out as the most well-regarded candidate, with 26% of Britons saying he would be a good or great prime minister, outmatching the 18% who think he would be average or the 19% who think he would be poor or terrible.

All other candidates are more likely to be seen in negative terms than positive ones by the wider public.

Among Labour voters, again, Burnham has a healthy lead, with 39% saying he would do a great or good job and only 8% saying the opposite, while opinion is more divided or predominantly negative for other figures.

With Andy Burnham far ahead of the pack in public opinion terms, digging a little deeper into his data shows that 67% of those who expect him to be better than Starmer think he would be great or good in his own right. Among 2024 Labour voters, this increases to 82%.

Tables coming shortly

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