As the Senedd election nears, 54% of Welsh people say the Welsh government is doing a bad job

Key takeaways

  • Only 12-14% of Welsh adults believe either the UK or Welsh governments are doing a good job, including just 24-26% of 2024 Labour voters
  • Keir Starmer has a net approval rating in Wales of -42, though this is up from -51 last month, unlike Eluned Morgan, whose rating has fallen from -24 to -32
  • Around half of Welsh people (49-52%) believe the cost of living and health should be top priorities for the Welsh government
  • Independence is the issue that Welsh people are most likely to expect a Plaid Cymru government to prioritise
  • 49% of Welsh people would not like to see Reform UK as part of the next Welsh government, more than say so of any other party

It’s now just over a week until the 2026 Senedd election, with our latest MRP showing a tight race between Reform UK and Plaid Cymru, both of whom are projected to make significant gains and who could both plausibly emerge as the largest party. Meanwhile, Labour and the Conservatives are both braced for historic losses.

But beyond the question of how Wales intends to vote, where does Welsh public opinion stand on the wider political questions as the campaign enters its final stages?

Do Welsh people think their governments are doing a good job?

Few Welsh people feel either of their Labour-led governments are doing good jobs.

Just 14% of the Welsh public give the Welsh government a positive performance rating, relative to 26% feeling they’re doing neither particularly well or badly and a clear majority (54%) thinking they’re doing an outright bad job.

The UK government fares even worse, with nearly two thirds of Welsh adults (65%) seeing the Starmer government as having done a bad job, while 20% give it a neutral rating and a mere 12% credit it with having done a good job.

Perhaps most damning of all for Labour is that only around a quarter of Welsh people who backed the party at the 2024 general election (24-26%) would today describe either government as doing a good job. This is relative to nearly half (47%) feeling the UK government have done a bad job and 41% feeling the same of the Welsh government, the latter figure having risen eight points since last month.

If Labour perform as badly as expected, which government’s performance is more responsible is likely to be a focus of internal recriminations. So which do the Welsh public see as more influential?

On this, they are largely split between the 37% who believe the UK government has the most influence over their lives and the 42% who feel that both Westminster and Cardiff Bay have equal impacts on their life. Just 10% of Welsh adults believe that the decisions of the Welsh government have more bearing on them than those made by the UK government.

Which politicians do Welsh people think are doing a good job?

Less than a quarter of Welsh people (23%) believe that Keir Starmer is doing a good job as prime minister, with nearly two thirds (65%) thinking he is doing badly in office. Those in Wales who voted for Labour at the 2024 general election are split 43% to 47% on Starmer’s performance. Nonetheless, Stamer’s overall figures in Wales do represent a marked improvement, with his latest net approval rating of -42 up from -51 in March and -59 in January.

The same is not true, though, for Starmer’s Welsh counterpart, Eluned Morgan, whose net rating has instead fallen eight points to -32, with just 20% of Welsh adults feeling she is doing well as first minister, while 52% believe she’s doing badly. These are respectively the lowest and highest such figures recorded by YouGov during Morgan’s tenure as first minister.

Among those lining up to succeed Morgan, there’s a clear contrast. Plaid Cymru leader Rhun ap Iorwerth is the only Welsh leader to currently hold a net positive approval rating, with 38% believing he is doing well in his job, relative to 29% feeling he is doing poorly. However, Dan Thomas, Reform UK’s leader in Wales, is seen to be doing badly by 44% to 19%.

Welsh evaluations of Nigel Farage continue to slide, with just 31% now believing he is doing well as Reform UK’s overall leader, while 54% feel he is doing badly. This net approval rating of -23 is the latest decline from a peak of +5 last June, in the aftermath of Reform UK making record gains in last year’s local elections.

Kemi Badenoch is seen to be doing badly as Conservative leader by 50% to 25%, with Ed Davey also receiving a negative evaluation by the Welsh public by a margin of 40% to 27%. Zack Polanski’s performance as Green leader continues to divide Wales, with 32% believing he is doing well and 35% feeling he is doing poorly.

High ‘don’t know’ rates have long plagued the Welsh party leaders, though the public do appear to be getting more familiar with them as the campaign wears on. For instance, the proportion of Welsh people unsure how to evaluate Rhun ap Iorwerth’s performance has fallen from 39% in January to 33% today, while the proportion unsure about Darren Millar has fallen from 49% to 41% over the same period.

Who do Welsh people think would make the best first minister of Wales?

The lack of familiarity with Welsh political figures can also be seen when it comes to one of the biggest questions of the election: who should be the next first minister of Wales?

Even in a head-to-head between the two frontrunners for the position – Plaid Cymru’s Rhun ap Iorwerth and Reform UK’s Dan Thomas – half of Welsh adults (52%) say they are unsure who would make the better first minister. Nonetheless, the 28% who say ap Iorwerth would do the better job is twice the 14% who say so of Thomas.

In a choice between ap Iorwerth and incumbent Eluned Morgan, the Plaid Cymru leader’s margin is slightly larger, with 27% of Welsh adults backing him to do the better job, relative to 9% who feel this title rests with Morgan. This includes 2024 Labour voters being more likely to back ap Iorwerth than Morgan by 30% to 18%.

Eluned Morgan does, though, come out on top in a head-to-head against Dan Thomas, with the Welsh public favouring the current first minister by a margin of 23% to 15%.

Who do Welsh people want – and not want – to form the next Welsh government?

Indeed, there is a clear element of ‘anyone but Reform’ for many Welsh voters. Half of Welsh people (49%) say that they would not like to see Reform UK as part of the next Welsh government, more than say so of any other party, and more than double the 23% who say that they would like to see the party form a government after the election.

The Conservatives and Labour would also not be particularly welcome to end up around the Welsh cabinet table, with nearly four in ten Welsh people (37-39%) saying they would not like to see either party in the next Welsh government, relative to just 13-15% who would like to see either in office after the election.

Plaid Cymru, by contrast, are the sole party with a net positive score here, with the 35% of Welsh people saying they would ideally like to see the party form the next government outnumbering the 22% who explicitly say they would not like to see them in power at Cardiff Bay.

With our most recent MRP projecting a hung parliament, there’s also a question of who will be seen as an acceptable partner for a coalition or alternative deal.

For those intending to vote Plaid Cymru, the Greens are the least unattractive coalition partner, with 43% saying they would ideally like to see the environmentalist party in power after the next election, relative to just 12% stating they would not like to see the Greens in government. Only one in six Plaid Cymru supporters (17%) would like to see Labour cling onto power in any form, though just 25% outright do not want this.

Among those intending to vote Reform UK, there is limited desire for any other party to be included in a potential government, though just 19% say they would definitely not like to the see the Conservatives in power at Cardiff Bay. This doesn’t amount to great enthusiasm among Reform voters for sharing power with the Tories, with still only 26% saying they would ideally like to see the Tories round the cabinet table.

What do Welsh people believe should be the top priorities for the Welsh government?

No matter who forms the next Welsh government, there are two issues that the Welsh public would particularly like them to focus on: the cost of living and health. Half of all Welsh people (49-52%), including most of those intending vote Plaid Cymru (51-56%) and nearly half of those intending to vote Reform UK (46-47%), say they should be among Cardiff Bay’s top priorities.

This is ahead of the economy and immigration, each of which a quarter of Welsh people (25%) believe should be among the issues most prioritised by the Welsh government, even if the latter is a matter officially ‘reserved’ for Westminster. Reform voters are actually more likely to cite immigration as an issue than any other (52%, versus 46-47% for the cost of living and health), while for other voters it hardly features, e.g. at 10% among those backing Plaid Cymru.

Nearly one in five (18-19%) think housing and education should be top concerns for the Welsh government, with one in seven (14-15%) saying the same of transport and the environment. In all four cases, those intending to vote Plaid Cymru are more likely to say they are key issues than those leaning towards Reform UK (21-23% vs 4-14%).

What do Welsh people expect the next Welsh government to prioritise?

But regardless of what people would like the Welsh government to prioritise, what issues do they expect them to focus on?

If Plaid Cymru form the next government, a third of Welsh people (34%) expect Welsh independence to be among the issues at the top of the agenda – the most common answer. This includes 31% of those intending to vote for the party, despite just 14% saying they personally think it’s an issue that the Welsh government should prioritise.

Just 18-19% of Welsh people expect such a government to prioritise the two currently biggest issues – health and the cost of living – though roughly four in ten Plaid Cymru supporters (37-42%) anticipate the party doing so if it takes power.

Around a quarter of those intending to vote Plaid Cymru (25-26%) expect a government formed by the party would prioritise education and the economy, with 18% believing housing would be among its top issues and 16% feeling so of childcare, which has been the subject of one of their key manifesto pledges.

If Reform UK instead form the Welsh government, there’s a clearer idea of what they’ll focus on, with 53% of Welsh people, including 75% of those intending to vote Reform UK, expecting such an executive to prioritise immigration matters.

Only 16% of the Welsh public expect a government formed by Reform UK to focus on the cost of living and a mere 11% expect health to be among its priorities, though these figures respectively rise to 40% and 29% among those intending to vote for the party, 33% of whom additionally expect the economy to be a priority.

Do Welsh people support independence?

Even if many Welsh people expect a Plaid Cymru-led government to prioritise independence, a break from the UK is unlikely to be happening any time soon. Just 22% of Welsh people say they would vote “Yes” to independence from the UK if a referendum was held tomorrow, while a clear majority (55%) say they would vote “No”.

And despite Plaid Cymru’s gains in polls in the last year, there’s nothing to suggest this is growing appetite for what has historically been an objective for the party.

Indeed, a relatively low 52% of those intending to vote for the pro-independence party on 7 May say they would vote “Yes” in an independence referendum, while 30% say they vote “No”.

In fact, more Welsh people say they would vote “Yes” in a referendum on abolishing the Senedd (29%) than would vote for independence, although the more common stance is still to oppose abolition (48%). Despite potentially being the largest party in the Senedd after the election, two thirds of those intending to vote Reform UK next week (66%) say they would vote to abolish the institution.

How do Welsh people see the political parties?

Beyond its long-term objective of Welsh independence, one of Plaid Cymru’s central focuses has been on protecting and promoting the Welsh language, to the extent the party has sometimes been pigeon-holed as merely being a party for Welsh speakers.

Indeed, 30% of Welsh people see the party as more of a specialist party for Welsh speakers, roughly the same as the 34% who view it as a general left-wing party for all Welsh people. Nonetheless, there has been some shift in opinion over the last year, with the proportion seeing Plaid Cymru as a general left-of-centre party rising eight points since last July.

This change has been most prevalent among 2024 Labour voters, just 25% of whom now see Plaid Cymru as more of a specialist party for Welsh speakers, down from 40% last summer, while the proportion seeing the party as a general left-wing party for all Welsh people has risen from 35% to 43%.

When it comes to other associations for Plaid Cymru, they are the party the Welsh public are most likely to trust to understand the problems facing Wales, to represent Wales within the UK and to support Welsh businesses. In these three areas, 29-33% of Welsh people give these titles to Plaid Cymru, compared to 14-15% giving them to Reform UK and no more than 9% giving them to any other party.

In other areas, the Welsh public are more divided. The 18-20% of Welsh people trusting Plaid Cymru most to deliver change or to represent people like them are roughly matched by the 18-21% who feel these are attributes most true of Reform UK. The Greens also score relatively highly in these areas (10-11%).

Running public services and managing the Welsh government’s taxing and spending are among the key day-to-day tasks awaiting the winner of this election, with 18-20% of Welsh people feeling they are jobs Plaid Cymru would be best at, while 15% rate Reform UK’s ability most highly.

Although Labour have claimed that only they can ensure a good relationship between the UK and Welsh governments, just 15% of Welsh people trust Labour most to do this, with similar proportions (15-16%) believing that Plaid Cymru or Reform UK would instead be the best at achieving an effective relationship.

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