As the Senedd election campaign gets underway, just 13% of Welsh people believe the Welsh government is doing a good job

Key takeaways

  • 64% of Welsh adults believe the UK government is doing a bad job, with 51% feeling the same about the Welsh government
  • Only 26% of 2024 Welsh Labour voters believe the UK government is doing a good job
  • 51% of Welsh people believe the cost of living should be a top priority for the Welsh government, with 46% saying so of health
  • Eluned Morgan is seen as doing badly as first minister by 47% to 23%
  • Keir Starmer has a net approval rating of -51 among Welsh adults, though this is up from -59 in January

Election day in Wales is fast approaching, with the dissolution of the current Senedd occurring tomorrow. It’s already shaping up to be a seismic election, with YouGov’s first MRP of the election projecting breakthrough gains for Plaid Cymru, Reform UK and the Greens, as well as historic losses for the Conservatives and Labour.

But beyond how they intend to vote, where does Welsh public opinion stand on the wider political questions?

Do Welsh people think their governments are doing a good job?

Likely central to Labour’s poor ratings in Wales, which put them on course for their worst result in a major election in the country for more than a century, is a widespread perception that the Labour governments at both Westminster and Cardiff Bay are doing bad jobs.

More than six in ten Welsh adults (64%) give the UK government a negative performance rating, relative to 22% feeling they’re doing neither particularly well or badly and just 11% believing they’re doing a good job overall.

The Welsh government fares only a little better, being seen as doing a bad job by the Welsh public by a margin of 51% to 13%, with a further 26% feeling they’re doing neither a good nor bad job.

None of these figures have changed significantly since our January snapshot.

Only around a quarter of those who backed Labour at the last general election (23-26%) believe that either government are doing a good job, with more than four in ten (43%) feeling the UK government are doing badly, a view shared about the Welsh government by 33%.

Which politicians do Welsh people think are doing a good job?

Seven in ten Welsh adults (70%), including 52% of 2024 Welsh Labour voters, believe Keir Starmer is doing a bad job as prime minister, relative to just 19% who feel he is doing well in Downing Street. Nonetheless, Starmer’s latest net approval rating of -51 in Wales is an eight point improvement on his January score of -59.

By contrast, Eluned Morgan’s approval ratings have seen little change, with nearly half of Welsh people (47%) continuing to believe she is doing badly as first minister, compared to 23% believing she is doing well in the job. But after more than 18 months in the role, 31% of Welsh adults are still unsure of their opinion of the first minister.

This is, however, an issue shared with those lining up to succeed her, with 36% of the Welsh public unsure of their opinion about Plaid Cymru leader Rhun ap Iorwerth and 41% answering “don’t know” about Dan Thomas, the leader of Reform UK in Wales.

Over the course of the campaign, all three will be hoping to convince these unsure adults of their ability to do a good job. In this, ap Iorwerth does have a bit of a head start, with 38% of Welsh people already believing he’s doing well in his current role, relative to 28% feeling he’s doing badly, giving him a rare net positive approval rating. This contrasts with the public feeling Thomas is doing badly in his job by 39% to 20%.

Reform UK’s overall leader fares little better, with 50% of Welsh people believing Nigel Farage is doing badly in his current role, eighteen points more than the 32% who feel he’s doing well. This is down from a net rating of -12 in January, and is a clear fall from the +5 rating Farage scored last June after making record gains in last year’s local elections.

Kemi Badenoch is seen to be doing badly as Conservative leader by 50% to 27%, while the Lib Dems’ Ed Davey, whose leadership the Welsh public were divided 32% to 29% on in January, is now seen to be doing poorly by 40% to 27%, mirroring a change in perception seen among the British public as a whole.

The Welsh public remain split on whether Zack Polaski is doing well or badly as Green leader (33% vs 30% in this latest survey), though the proportion who are unsure has fallen from 46% to 37% since the start of the year.

What do Welsh people believe should be the top priorities for the Welsh government?

As the Senedd election campaign gets underway, inflation and the NHS are the issues top of mind for potential voters, with 51% of Welsh adults believing the cost of living should be one of the issues most prioritised by the Welsh government, an increase of six points since January, and 46% saying the same of health, though this is down a full 13 points since the start of the year.

A quarter of Welsh people (25%) believe each of the economy and immigration should be among the issues most prioritised by the Welsh government, even if the latter is a matter entirely ‘reserved’ for Westminster.

One in five (19%) believe education should be a top concern for Cardiff Bay, up four points since January, with 16% saying so of housing, 14% of transport, 13% of the environment and 11% of crime.

Around half of those intending to vote Plaid Cymru (52%) and nearly half of those intending to back Reform UK (45-46%) agree that the cost of living and health should be top priorities for the Welsh government, but there is disagreement on the importance of other issues.

While 55% of those intending to vote Reform UK believe immigration should be a top priority, this is true of just 9% of those planning to vote Plaid. Reform UK backers are also significantly more likely to prioritise crime as an issue (17% vs 5%), but are less likely to do so for education (13% vs 25%) or the environment (2% vs 22%).

Despite being a long-term goal for the party, just 14% of those intending to vote for Plaid Cymru believe Welsh independence should be a main priority for the Welsh government.

How do Welsh people’s priorities for the UK government differ to their priorities for the Welsh government?

Likely because of the economic impacts of the war in Iran, the cost of living has also shot up the list of priorities that Welsh people have for the UK government, with 56% now believing it should be one of Westminster’s top concerns, up eight points since the start of the year. Defence has also gone up the agenda, with 22% saying it should be prioritised, up six points.

By contrast, the proportion of Welsh people saying health should be a top priority for the UK government has fallen 12 points to 35%, the proportion placing immigration in this category has fallen seven points to 37% and the number wanting Starmer’s government to particularly focus on the wider economy has fallen from 36% to 30%.

See the full results here

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