YouGov’s final poll ahead of the South Australian election shows Labor on track to secure its highest-ever two-party preferred vote in the South Australian Labor Party's history, while the Liberals face their worst result to date, finishing third on just 19%. Meanwhile, One Nation’s surge to 22% places it second in the state for the first time, with particularly strong support in regional areas.

Paul Smith, Director of Public Data, YouGov, said, “Labor is set to secure the largest two-party preferred vote in the South Australian Labor Party's history, while the Liberals are on track for their worst-ever result, finishing third on just 19%. One Nation’s surge to 22% places them second in the state for the first time, with particularly strong support in regional areas.”

Regional breakdown

3 candidate preferred battle

Record two-party preferred result for Labor

Labor is forecast to achieve a 59–41 lead on a two-party preferred basis against both the Liberals and One Nation, a +4.4% swing in its favour.

This would represent Labor’s highest-ever two-party preferred result in South Australia, despite its primary vote being 2 points lower than at the last state election.

In Adelaide, Labor’s dominance is even more pronounced, leading the Liberals 64% to 36% on a 2PP basis.

Liberals face historic decline

The Liberal Party’s projected 19% primary vote would be its lowest result in any state or federal election since the Coalition was formed, falling below previous lows in the 2021 Western Australian election and the 1998 Queensland election.

Voter retention is also a major challenge, with only 55% of those who voted Liberal in the last federal election intending to support the party at the state level with 29% now voting One nation and 10% Labor. Notably, the Liberals lost every seat in Adelaide at the last federal election.

One Nation surges to second place

One Nation is projected to secure 22% of the primary vote, placing it ahead of the Liberals for the first time in South Australia and matching its best-ever state result (Queensland, 1998).

Support is strongest outside Adelaide, where One Nation leads with 27%, ahead of Labor (24%) and the Liberals (21%).

In these regions, the contest becomes highly competitive, with a three-candidate preferred split of Labor 38%, One Nation 34%, and Liberals 24%.

Feeling unrepresented driving One Nation support

Among One Nation voters, the primary motivation is dissatisfaction with mainstream politics:

  • 52% say they vote One Nation because they feel unrepresented by major parties
  • Only 10% cite the party’s policies as their main reason

Smith added: “The key driver behind One Nation’s support is disillusionment with the major parties, with over half of its voters saying they feel unrepresented.

“For the major parties, the challenge is clear — winning back these voters will require better representation, not simply adopting One Nation’s policies. In regional seats, contests are shaping into highly competitive multi-candidate races, where outcomes will depend heavily on preference flows.”

Campaign did not change voter views

There has been little movement in voting intentions over the past four weeks, with primary vote figures largely unchanged:

  • Labor: 38% (+1)
  • One Nation: 22% (no change)
  • Liberal: 19% (-1)
  • Greens: 12% (-1)
  • Independent: 5% (-1)
  • Others: 4% (+2)

Federal voting snapshot

If a federal election were held now in South Australia, primary vote would be as follows:

  • Labor: 33%
  • One Nation: 25%
  • Coalition: 20%
  • Greens: 13%
  • Independent: 3%
  • Others: 6%
  • Labor: 55% vs Coalition 45% (2PP)
  • Labor: 56% vs One Nation 44% (2PP)

Leadership ratings

Premier Peter Malinauskas maintains a strong lead as preferred Premier:

  • Preferred Premier: 62% Malinauskas vs 23% Ashton Hurn (+39)

Peter Malinauskas’s net satisfaction is +33 (63% satisfied, 30% dissatisfied), while Opposition Leader Ashton Hurn records a net satisfaction of +7 (42% satisfied, 35% dissatisfied).

Methodology

The survey was conducted among 1,265 South Australian voters between 9–17 March 2026. Results are weighted to be representative of the population by age, gender, region, education, income and 2025 federal election vote), with an effective margin of error of 3.4%. See Australian Polling Council methodology statement for full weightings.

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