YouGov's election track record

YouGov’s political research proves our accuracy, the quality of our data and our commitment to innovation. This page documents every election YouGov has correctly called. The most recent projection is always at the top.

May 2026 – Welsh Senedd election

We were the most accurate pollster in the 2026 Welsh Senedd election by some distance. Our final call MRP exactly predicted the number of seats that Plaid, Reform, the Greens, Lib Dem and other parties would win. We also successfully predicted the marked decline in the Labour and Conservative seat tallies, which came well within our predicted bounds on both counts.

May 2026 – Scottish parliament election

YouGov’s MRP was by various measures the most accurate in the 2026 Scottish Parliament election – including predicting the highest number of constituencies correctly. All of our calls for the election – seats and shares on both constituency and regional lists – across the parties were comfortably within our upper and lower bounds, and we clearly predicted the scale of the SNP victory, Labour’s struggles, and the surge for both Reform UK and the Green party.

March 2026 – Danish general election

YouGov accurately predicted the share of votes and seats won by the red bloc and blue bloc parties in this snap election. Our average error across all parties was just 0.88 percentage points. We successfully predicted the extent of the Danish People’s Party’s vote share recovery to within 0.8pts, a much greater degree of accuracy than almost all of our competitors.

March 2026 – South Australian election

YouGov delivered the most accurate polling of the South Australian state election, correctly estimating the primary vote shares of all three major parties to within one percentage point and was the only pollster to do so. Our final poll closely reflected the official statewide primary vote with an average difference from the final result of only 0.9%.

May 2025 – Australian federal election

YouGov was the most accurate pollster in the 2025 Australian federal election, with our MRP providing the joint-most accurate projections of the national ‘two party preferred’ vote and by far the most accurate public electorate-level projections. No seat model other than YouGov’s MRP anticipated a landslide for Labor.

April 2025 – Canadian federal election

YouGov produced the first publicly available MRP projection of a Canadian election. It accurately called the winner of the election, each party’s estimated seat total fell well within the expressed bounds and the final overall result — Liberal control of government on an increased seat total — was also within the reported potential outcomes.

February 2025 – German federal election

YouGov was the most accurate pollster in the 2025 election. The results show our final vote intention poll successfully measured all but one party to within one percentage point. Our constituency MRP model projected 92% of Germany’s 299 district-level races.

July 2024 – UK general election

Our MRP called 92% of the seats correctly – outperforming all other models – and told the correct story of the election – a massive Labour majority. The MRP properly picked up on the extent and breadth of tactical voting and understood how the proportional decline in Conservative vote share would spread across seats in a way which many competitors failed to capture.

October 2023 – Australian Voice referendum

The result in the Voice referendum was 40% for Yes and 60% for No. YouGov’s last poll of the campaign projected a result of 40% Yes and 60% No. In short: we hit the nail on the head.

July 2023 – Spanish general election

YouGov published the first MRP to cover a general election in Spain which successfully projected a hung parliament in which the incumbent Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez would have the first opportunity to form the next government – an outcome which flew in the face of the polling consensus.

June 2017 – UK general election

Our groundbreaking MRP model’s detailed seat-by-seat projection said the UK was heading for a hung Parliament and so it proved.

Photo: Getty