Latest data from YouGov Public Data poll shows that if a federal election were held today, Labor would secure a commanding victory, defeating both the Coalition and One Nation 54–46 on a two-party preferred basis.

The results represent a two-point increase for Labor since the previous poll and, if replicated at an election, would be Labor’s second largest margin of victory in a federal election since 1946.

On primary vote, One Nation leads with 30% (+2), followed by Labor on 29% (+3). The Greens remain unchanged at 13%, while the Coalition has fallen to 17% (-4), its lowest primary vote ever recorded by YouGov.

Prime Minister Anthony Albanese's net satisfaction has improved four points to -21, with 36% of Australians satisfied with his performance and 57% dissatisfied. Albanese has also extended his lead as the preferred Prime Minister, increasing his advantage over Liberal-National Coalition leader Angus Taylor to 44% versus 35%.

Taylor's net satisfaction has slipped one point to -11[BS1] [PS2] , with 36% satisfied and 47% dissatisfied.

Paul Smith, Director of Public Data at YouGov, said the polling suggests a dramatic reshaping of Australia's political landscape.

"A 54–46 result would represent Labor's largest election victory since 1946, excluding its 2025 historic landslide win. It would also see One Nation become the official opposition, fundamentally redrawing Australia's political map, with Coalition MPs reduced to single figures and the National Party losing all representation in the House of Representatives."

The YouGov Public Data poll surveyed 1,502 eligible Australian voters online between 23 and 30 June.

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