Data from YouGov’s latest public data poll shows that if a federal election were held today, Labor would comfortably defeat both One Nation and the Coalition.

Labor leads One Nation 56–44 on a two-party preferred basis (+2 since the previous poll) and holds a 53–47 lead over the Coalition (-1).

On primary vote, Labor remains the largest party at 28% (-1), while One Nation has fallen four points to 26%. The Coalition has gained three points to reach 20%, while the Greens are down one point to 12%. Community Strong Australia recorded 2% support in its first appearance in the poll.

Working-class support shifts away from One Nation

The latest polling indicates One Nation's largest decline has come among voters who identify as working class, with the party's primary vote falling six percentage points among this group.

Labor now leads working-class voters 53–47 on a two-party preferred basis, representing a swing of more than four percentage points since the previous poll, more than double the national two-party preferred swing away from One Nation over the same period.

Paul Smith, Director of Public Data at YouGov, said, "One Nation's biggest decline has come from voters who identify as working class, where its primary vote has fallen by six points. Labor now leads among working-class voters by 53–47 on a two-party preferred basis, representing a swing of more than four points—more than double the national two-party preferred movement away from One Nation over the past two weeks."

Anthony Albanese's net satisfaction has improved compared to Taylor

Prime Minister Anthony Albanese's net satisfaction has improved three points to -18, with 38% of voters satisfied with his performance and 56% dissatisfied. Albanese has also widened his lead as preferred Prime Minister over Coalition leader Angus Taylor by two points, leading 44% to 35%.

Angus Taylor's net satisfaction has fallen five points to -16, with 33% of voters satisfied and 49% dissatisfied with his performance.

Methodology

The YouGov Public Data poll surveyed 1,468 Australian voters online between 7 and 14 July 2026.

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