Australians see the global balance of power shifting, with confidence in the US declining under President Donald Trump and China expected to become the world's leading power within two decades, according to YouGov's International survey.

Confidence in the US declines, but ties remain important

Nearly three in five Australians (60%) believe the United States has become less friendly towards Australia under President Donald Trump, while 64% say it has become a less trustworthy ally to other countries. A similar proportion (64%) believe the US has become more of a force for bad in the world under his leadership.

Australians also believe the impact of Trump's presidency could be lasting. Half (50%) say the United States' relationships with other countries have been permanently changed, while only 27% expect them to return to normal after he leaves office.

Despite these concerns, Australians are not turning away from the US. One-third (34%) believe Australia should remain a close ally of the US, while 38% favour maintaining a positive working relationship. However, Australians are even more likely to support positive relationships with China (48%) and India (50%), reflecting a growing preference for balanced engagement across the Indo-Pacific.

China expected to overtake the US

Looking to the future, half believe China will become the world's leading economic power (50%) and more believe it will become a technological power (60%) within the next 20 years, while 46% expect it to become the dominant military power.

Despite anticipating China's rise, Australians remain cautious. One in four (24%) describe China as unfriendly towards Australia and 15% see it as hostile. Russia is viewed even more negatively, with 35% describing it as unfriendly and 23% as a hostile threat.

Among Australia's allies, the United Kingdom is viewed most favourably, with 70% identifying it as a friend and ally, followed by the European Union (47%).

Global threats and defence priorities

Religious extremism is viewed as the world's biggest threat by Australians (31%), narrowly ahead of climate change (30%) and political extremism (29%).

There is a clear generational divide, with Australians aged 55+ most concerned about religious extremism (39%), while climate change ranks highest among 18–34-year-olds (45%).

Views on global security also reflect a sense of cautious realism. Nearly half of Australians (44%) believe the country spends too little on defence, compared with just 9% who think spending is too high. Around one-third (31%) believe current defence spending is about right.

If defence spending were to increase, more Australians would prefer reducing spending on public services (39%) than increasing taxes (24%).

At the same time, Australians are not expecting conflict to reach their own shores. More respondents believe a full-scale military attack on Australia within the next decade is unlikely than likely. There is also widespread confidence that the United States (57%) and other allied nations (73%) would come to Australia's defence should such an attack occur.

Support for international cooperation remains strong, with 63% backing the deployment of Australian forces if the US were attacked, rising to 74% if another allied country came under attack.

There is also broad backing for economic measures against countries that violate international norms. 69% Australians support maintaining economic sanctions against Russia following its invasion of Ukraine, while 51% believe it is more important to impose sanctions on countries that have behaved aggressively or committed war crimes to prioritise lower domestic costs.

Australia sees itself as a middle or smaller power

Despite living in one of the world's most stable democracies, only 11% Australians see their country as a super or great power in the world today. Instead, most Australians (76%) view their country as a medium to smaller power navigating an increasingly uncertain world, where traditional alliances remain important, China's influence is growing, and security challenges extend beyond conventional military threats.

Methodology

The survey was conducted online by YouGov Plc between 18 and 30 June 2026 across Australia, Canada, France, Germany, the UK and the US. The results reported here are based on a politically representative sample of 2,003 Australian adults.

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