First YouGov MRP of the 2026 Holyrood election suggests the SNP could win a majority

The Conservatives and Labour are on course for historic losses, while Reform UK are set for a breakthrough in Scotland

Key takeaways

• The SNP are set to win 67 seats in our model’s central estimate, which would be a five-seat majority, with 89% of simulations showing an SNP majority
• Reform UK are on course to make a significant breakthrough in Scotland, winning 20 MSPs in our central projection
• Labour are estimated to win no constituency seats at all, picking up just 15 seats overall according to our model (all from the regional lists)
• The Conservatives are projected to fall to just 8% of the vote, the worst ever for the party within Scotland at any election, with a sixth-place finish possible
• The Greens and Lib Dems are also set to make gains, being projected to win 11 and nine seats respectively, including a wafer-thin constituency win for the Greens in Edinburgh Central

YouGov’s first full MRP model of the 2026 Holyrood election suggests the SNP are on track for a fifth term in office, with our central projection of 67 seats for the party narrowly passing the 65 seats needed for a majority in the Scottish Parliament.

While the model overall projects a range of outcomes, with a lower bound of 63 seats and an upper bound of 69 seats for the nationalist party, the SNP win a majority in 89% of our simulations, suggesting it is highly likely John Swinney will be returned as first minister.

But while the SNP are projected to near-replicate their 2021 result of 64 seats, our model, which uses data from nearly 4,000 Scottish adults in fieldwork from 23 March to 8 April, shows a seismic shift elsewhere in the Scottish political landscape.

Reform UK, who won a mere 0.2% of the vote five years ago, are on course to be the second largest party at Holyrood, winning 20 MSPs in our median estimates, which would be the first time a party to the right of the Conservatives has won any seats in the Scottish Parliament.

The Scottish Greens are also set for a record result, with our central projection of 11 seats representing a gain of three on their 2021 result, as well as pointing to a total of 78 seats for pro-independence parties, the most in any Holyrood election to date.

Overall, our model suggests a range for pro-independence parties of between 69 and 82 seats, relative to a combined range of 45 to 58 for the unionist parties.

But with record highs come record lows, with our model showing historic defeats for both the Conservatives and Labour.

The Tories, who have been the largest unionist party at Holyrood since 2016, are reduced to just seven seats in our central estimate, a loss of 24, while Labour are on 15 seats, down seven from the last Holyrood elections, and despite having come first in Scotland during 2024’s Westminster election.

In both cases, this would be the fewest MSPs either party has ever returned to Holyrood, and is a marked decline from the 74 seats the two parties collectively won in the first devolved election in 1999. It also continues a trend of Labour making a net loss at every devolved election.

The Lib Dems fare better than the other long-established parties, holding nine seats in our median projection, more than double the four seats they won in 2021.

The constituency contests

Scotland’s voting system has two components. First, there are 73 ‘constituency’ seats, elected by the same first past the post system used for Westminster elections. These constituencies are grouped into eight regions, each of which elect seven ‘regional’ seats by a form of proportional representation (giving 56 regional seats in total). These additional regional seats aim to balance the inherent disproportionality of the constituency results, and make the Scottish Parliament more closely reflect overall national support for each party, while still retaining elected representatives with constituency links.

Our first MRP of the campaign shows the SNP are on course to once again dominate the constituency results, as they have in the last three devolved elections. On our central estimates, the SNP are projected to win 66 of these 73 seats, a gain of four since 2021.

The Lib Dems are forecast to win in five constituencies, up one, while the Conservatives are reduced to a single seat – Ettrick, Roxburgh and Berwickshire – in our median projections, down from five.

But it could be a wipeout for Labour in the constituencies, with the party leading in none on our central figures, while the Greens have a knife-edge lead in Edinburgh Central, a three-way marginal against the SNP and Labour according to our model. A Green victory here would be the first time they have won a constituency seat at Holyrood.

Edinburgh Central is one of five constituencies that are effectively tossups in our results, where the winning party’s current estimated lead is less than five points.

These seats include Caithness, Sutherland and Ross, where the SNP are well within reach of winning instead of the Lib Dems, as well as potentially depriving the Conservatives of their sole projected seat of Ettrick, Roxburgh and Berwickshire. However, this is balanced by the vulnerability of the SNP’s wafer-thin margins over Labour in Dumbarton and the Greens in Glasgow Kelvin and Maryhill.

In addition, there are a clutch of slightly less marginal seats that are nevertheless still in contention as the campaign gets underway, with the Conservatives coming within ten points of winning in a further three constituencies, Labour in an additional two and the Lib Dems in one. Reform UK are less than ten points behind the victor in two seats: Dumfriesshire and Ettrick, Roxburgh and Berwickshire.

Latest Holyrood voting intention figures

Although the SNP are projected to hold their ground in seat terms, this is in spite of a significant decline in support since 2021, with our model’s median estimates showing the party taking a 41% constituency vote share, down seven points, and a 32% regional share, down eight points.

As the first major electoral test in Scotland of Keir Starmer’s government, comparisons will also be drawn against the 2024 Westminster election result, where the SNP won 30% of the Scottish vote to Labour’s 35%.

Here, Labour are undoubtedly down, with a projected constituency vote of 18% and a regional share of 15%. But this is also a decline of four and three points on their shares at the 2021 Holyrood election, putting Labour on course for their worst result for any election in Scotland since 1910, excluding only the 2019 European election.

The Conservatives’ support is also set to sink to an historic low. Having never won less than a 12% vote share at any election in Scotland, the Tories are currently set to win only 8% on both votes, according to our model’s central estimates, down a massive 14-15 points from the 2021 election and carrying a real chance of ending up in sixth place.

Reform UK are forecast to win 19% on both votes. While this is from a baseline of 0% at the previous Holyrood election, it still marks a substantial gain on the 7% they won in Scotland at the 2024 general election, as well as exceeding the 15% they took as the Brexit Party in the 2019 European elections.

The Greens have a median projected regional share of 13%, a gain of five points from their joint-best result in 2021. This is alongside a constituency share of just 2%, largely on account of the party only fielding candidates in six constituencies.

The Lib Dems are projected to win 10% of both votes, which represents gains of three and five points respectively, as well as their best result at Holyrood for 19 years.

Regional results

The SNP’s domination of the constituency seats means that, on our model’s figures, they are entitled to just one of the regional “top-up” seats, despite being set to win the most regional votes in all eight regions. This support ranges from 37% in Central Scotland and Lothians West to 25% in Edinburgh and Lothians East.

Instead, 20 of the regional seats are projected to be allocated to Reform UK, with 15 going to Labour, ten to the Greens, six to the Conservatives and four to the Lib Dems. Though, as with the constituency seats, some of these allocations are down to wafer-thin margins.

Support for the Greens is particularly strong in the Glasgow and Edinburgh and Lothians East regions, where one in five voters (20-21%) intend to cast their regional vote for the party, relative to 9-12% in other regions. Reform UK’s vote is almost a mirror image of this, standing at just 14-15% in the regions of Scotland’s two biggest cities, but as high as 24% in the South Scotland region.

Despite the decline in their support, Labour’s historic areas of strength in Scotland can still be seen, with the party continuing to do better in the so-called ‘central belt’, where the party is currently on 18-19% of the regional vote, compared to 11% in the North East and just 7% in the Highlands and Islands.

Likewise, the Conservatives are still set to do better in North East Scotland (12%) and South Scotland (11%), while Lib Dem support is disproportionately found in the Highlands and Islands, where they are projected to win 20% of the regional vote.

See the full results here and here

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