Of the impacts we asked about, the main public expectation is almost always negative

Key takeaways

  • Three quarters of Britons (77%) think the US-Iran conflict will have a negative impact on the UK and global economies in the longer term
  • Only 26% of Britons believe the US attacks will end up having had a positive impact on stunting Iran’s apparent nuclear ambitions in the long term
  • Two thirds (67%) think the conflict will negatively impact stability in the Middle East over the longer term
  • Only 15% think that the strikes will improve the position of pro-Western factions in Iran
  • While Reform UK and Tory voters are more positive than other voters, but their expectations still tend to be negative (with the only exception being Iran’s nuclear weapons program)

With the US-Iran conflict continuing into another week, a new YouGov survey examines what the British public think the longer-term impacts of the fighting will be.

One of the key reasons Donald Trump gave for launching attacks on Iran was to prevent the nation from developing nuclear weapons.

However, only 26% of Britons believe that, over the longer term, the US attacks will end up having had a positive impact on stunting Iran’s apparent nuclear ambitions. This compares to 33% who think it won’t make much difference either way, and 22% who think the US’s actions will prove counterproductive in the longer term.

Set against this, however, is the belief among the British public that the conflict will negatively impact stability in the Middle East over the long term, with 67% expecting so.

Likewise, with Donald Trump having previously expressed hopes that the Iranian people would overthrow the Islamic Republic and install a pro-Western government, the main expectation in the UK is that the war will have a negative impact on pro-Western factions in Iran (44%), with the same number saying so of pro-Western factions in the wider region. Only 15% think that the strikes will improve the position of pro-Western voices in Iran.

At the bottom of the table, the public are most likely to think the conflict will have had a negative impact on the UK and global economies (77% in both cases). Almost two thirds of Britons likewise think it will have a negative impact on their own household finances.

With Donald Trump having publicly condemned Keir Starmer over his unwillingness to support US operations to the extent that the US president would like, it is no surprise to see that 66% of Britons think the war will have a negative impact on UK-US relations. Indeed, they presumably also believe the diplomatic impacts extend far beyond the ‘special relationship’, with 68% believing the conflict will have a negative impact on America’s reputation internationally.

And with experts suggesting that the conflict could result in terror attacks against the US, most Britons (55%) think the conflict will end up negatively impacting the safety of people here in the UK as well.

How do voters differ in their views on the impact of the US-Iran conflict?

Reform UK and Tory voters have proved to be the most favourable towards the US decision to attack Iran, and these results likewise show that they are more likely than other voters to think the conflict will have positive impacts over the longer term.

While on no measure do more than half of Reform and Conservative voters think the impact will be positive, that the strikes will impede Iran’s nuclear weapons capabilities are the plurality view, at 48% among the former and 39% among the latter.

However, this is the only scenario we asked about where the most common perception among Reform and Tory voters is that the outcome will be positive. For example, that pro-Western factions in Iran will be strengthened is expected by only 27% of Reform voters (versus 32% who think they will be weakened), and 23% of Conservatives (versus 41% who take the opposite view).

See full data here

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