Britons tend to feel Burnham would be a better PM than any major party leader

Key takeaways

  • Britons tend to believe Andy Burnham would make a better PM than Nigel Farage by 43% to 23%
  • In a head-to-head against Kemi Badenoch, Britons are more divided, favouring Burnham by just 32% to 28%
  • Burnham beats both Zack Polanski and Ed Davey in ‘best PM’ head-to-heads
  • Badenoch’s lead over Farage in a head-to-head has increased to 21 points, having been near-tied last summer

Andy Burnham is likely to become the UK’s next prime minister in three weeks’ time, following Labour MPs making it clear that they feel he would do better at the top job than Keir Starmer, an assessment the public tend to share. But how does he fare against the alternatives on offer from other parties…

In ‘head-to-heads’ against the leaders of each of the other four major parties, Britons consistently tend to believe that Andy Burnham would be the better prime minister, though by some quiet varied margins.

Fresh from beating Reform UK candidate Robert Kenyon by 20 points in the Makerfield by-election, Andy Burnham enjoys a 20 point lead over Nigel Farage when it comes to who would do a better job inside Number 10. Just 23% of Britons back the Reform UK leader to be the better PM of the two, relative to 43% thinking Burnham is the man for the job.

It will be Kemi Badenoch, though, that Burnham is likely to regularly face as his opposite number in the House of Commons, and between the two the public are much more divided. A lower 32% of Britons feel Burnham would make a better PM than Badenoch, while 28% feel the Tory leader would be more effective at the job.

Burnham’s lead is much stronger over leaders of opposing progressive parties, with the public feeling he would be a better PM than Green leader Zack Polanski by a margin of 38% to 11% and a more successful head of government than Lib Dem leader Ed Davey by 32% to 11%.

So who exactly thinks Andy Burnham would make the best PM? In each of the head-to-heads we polled, those who voted Labour, Lib Dem or Green in 2024 favour Andy Burnham over the alternative, except for against Zack Polanski, who Green voters prefer by 42% to 19%.

Support for Burnham is strongest among these three voter groups when faced off against Nigel Farage, with 61-70% seeing the former Manchester mayor as the more capable PM of the two, relative to just 4-9% who feel the Reform UK leader would be the better PM.

On this question, Reform UK voters favour Farage by 73% to 5%, while 2024 Conservatives are comparatively divided, with 25% feeling Burnham would make the better PM, even if a greater 40% side with the Reform UK leader.

In other scenarios, Conservative and Reform UK voters are more aligned, favouring Badenoch over Burnham by 58-65% to 8-11%, but preferring Burnham to Polanski by 38-39% to 1-3%.

How does Burnham compare to Starmer on who would make the best PM?

Of course, one of the biggest questions for many will be how much of an improvement this represents relative to Keir Starmer.

Although the outgoing prime minister consistently held a lead over Nigel Farage when it comes to who would do better at Downing Street, the ten point margin Starmer holds over the Reform UK leader in our most recent figures from May is half the lead held by Burnham today.

Likewise, Burnham performs significantly better in opposition to his fellow progressive leaders. His 27 point lead over Zack Polanski compares to Starmer bettering the Green leader by just five points, while the public’s view that Burnham would be a superior PM to Ed Davey contrasts with them favouring the Lib Dem leader over Starmer by 27% to 23%.

Burnham’s four point advantage over Kemi Badenoch, though, represents a much smaller improvement, as Britons were evenly split 33% to 33% over whether she or Starmer would make the better PM in our May figures.

Would Kemi Badenoch make a better PM than Nigel Farage?

Beyond the internal politics of the Labour party, one of the key questions in British politics currently is the continued battle over the future of the right, with the respective fortunes of Kemi Badenoch and Nigel Farage at the heart of this.

As recently as last August, Britons were near evenly split on the question of which of the two would make the better prime minister. Today, though, Britons are more than twice as likely to think Badenoch would do the better job of the pair, with 38% of Britons backing the Tory leader over Nigel Farage, while just 17% feel the Reform UK leader would be the more effective premier.

As documented in January, part of Badenoch’s improvement on this question has been an increased willingness of voters for progressive parties to back her over Farage, with as many as 53% of 2024 Lib Dem voters now willing to do so.

But there has also been a shift among Conservative and Reform UK voters themselves. Since last August, the proportion of 2024 Conservatives favouring Farage has roughly halved from 36% to 19%, while the number feeling Badenoch would be the better PM has roughly doubled from 29% to 56%. Meanwhile, 16% of previous Reform UK voters now prefer Badenoch over their own party leader for the top job, up from 4%.

See the full results here

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