Big YouGov Voter Study 2026: How solid is Reform UK's rise?

Immigration is the key factor in Reform UK’s rise, but much of its coalition is receptive to Kemi Badenoch’s Conservatives

Reform UK’s rise has been central to British politics since the last general election, with the party leading in opinion polls for more than a year, including surpassing the Conservatives as the largest party on the right, and converting this into record-breaking results in local and devolved elections.

While the scale of this surge is unprecedented, with a longevity and real-world gains unmatched by the SDP-Liberal Alliance surge in the 1980s or UKIP’s peak in the last decade, there remains the possibility that it could be a bubble waiting to burst like those previous threats to the traditional party system. It, for instance, cannot go unnoticed that Reform UK’s current support is similar to the level that lost the Conservatives the last election.

So as part of our study of the state of British voters two years since the 2024 general election, we’ve dug into how Reform UK voters feel about the party, and the alternatives, including whether the Conservatives can retake their previous position as the main party of Britain’s right.

Who are Reform UK’s supporters?

At its core, Reform UK’s current coalition has three main components – those who voted Reform UK in 2024 and would do so again, the 26% of 2024 Conservatives they’ve won over, and the smaller proportion of voters they’ve gained from Labour.

In many respects, these groups are relatively similar. They are disproportionately older, with 68% of all current Reform UK supporters being over 50, rising to 78% of those they’ve gained from the Tories, as well as being predominantly male, with 56-63% in all three groups being men. Additionally, just 18-24% in the three main groups have been educated to degree level, relative to 39% of all those with a current voting intention, while 35-43% are from routine or manual occupations, relative to 29% of all current voters.

When it comes to financial security, though, there is a big divide. Only around a third of gains from Labour (32%) or steadfast Reform UK voters (35%) describe themselves as financially comfortable, relative to 54% of those who backed the Conservatives at the last election. Similarly, a clear majority of ex-Tory Reform UK supporters (56%) own their home outright, relative to 46% of Reform UK loyalists and just 36% of previous Labour voters, who are disproportionately likely to live in council or association housing (18% vs 6% of ex-Tories).

Reform UK’s gains from Labour also hold a slightly different political history to the rest of the coalition. As many as 22% voted to Remain in the EU in 2016, relative to a mere 6% of loyal Reform UK voters, while only 34% voted for Boris Johnson’s Conservatives in 2019, compared to 61% of those who already voted Reform UK in 2024 and 90% of more recent gains from the Tories.

What is attracting voters to Reform UK?

The appeal of Reform UK is both fairly straightforward and reasonably uniform across its coalition, with immigration clearly the top factor in its success. A majority of Reform UK supporters (54%), including 52-56% in the three main groups, say that trusting the party to manage immigration is one of the reasons that most appeals to them.

Perceived honesty about the issues facing the country and representing needed change are also central to Reform UK’s gains, with 35-39% of current Reform supporters saying that these are among the top reasons they intend to back the party. Again, this includes similar proportions (34-41%) across the three groups.

Feelings of representation also matter, with 23-25% of supporters identifying Reform UK being the only party to stand for people like them or being the party closest to their values as key to their choice.

Nonetheless, for 22% of Reform UK’s voters, it’s not a case of loving the party, but instead seeing other parties as worse. Notably, a higher 31% of ex-Labour voters hold this sentiment, while being the least likely to feel Reform UK is the party closest to their values, indicating they are the least sold on their new home.

Other attractions of Reform UK, each held as a top reason to back the party by 11-14% of supporters, include Nigel Farage’s leadership, a belief they would do a good job in government, them being best-placed to stop Labour, and their stance on Net Zero.

What do Reform UK voters believe are the most important issues facing the country?

Immigration’s centrality to Reform UK’s message can also be seen in fully 86% of their supporters, including 79-88% from each of the three main blocs, considering it one of the most important issues facing the country. Not only is this more than double the proportion seeing any other issue as among the most pressing, but it is roughly twice the rate that Britons as a whole (42%) perceive immigration to be one of the main issues.

Following immigration, the cost of living and defence come second and third on Reform UK voters’ agenda, with 34-38% seeing them as among the most important issues today, followed by 23-25% saying so of crime and welfare benefits, and 20-21% viewing the economy and the NHS in this way.

Here, there are some divides within Reform UK’s coalition. The cost of living is a top concern for 51% of their gains from Labour, relative to 30% of those who previously backed the Tories, while their ex-Labour voters are also more likely to see the NHS as one of the most pressing problems facing the UK, and less preoccupied by issues like defence and taxation.

How do Reform UK voters feel about major politicians?

Beyond immigration, Nigel Farage himself is undoubtedly part of Reform UK’s appeal, with fully 91% of the party’s voters having a favourable opinion of the stalwart Eurosceptic, including 49% having a very favourable view of him.

Those gained from Labour are a little less enthusiastic in their opinion of Farage, with just 79% seeing him in a positive light, relative to 94% of those who backed the Conservatives or Reform UK itself in 2024, but even then, it’s just 15% of defectors from Labour who dislike Farage.

However, Farage now faces two potential challengers. To Reform UK’s right, Rupert Lowe holds positive favourability ratings among all three main segments of Reform UK’s coalition, with 44% of Reform UK’s voters seeing him positively, relatively to 24% viewing him unfavourably.

On the side of the mainstream right, Kemi Badenoch is increasingly popular among Farage’s coalition. Since this time last year, the proportion of current Reform UK voters seeing her favourably has risen 19 points to 56%, while the number viewing her unfavourably has fallen 14 points to 34%, flipping a net rating of -13 to one of +22. This includes an increase from +20 to +58 among Conservative to Reform UK switchers, as well as a rise from -17 to +18 among those who had backed Reform UK in 2024.

Additionally, while Farage could previously count on a severe dislike of Keir Starmer among the voters Reform UK had picked up from Labour, 29% of such voters have a favourable view of likely new leader Andy Burnham, even if 51% see him unfavourably.

While this opens the possibility of Labour being able to regain a hearing among some of these voters, Badenoch’s star has also risen among these Labour to Reform UK switchers, from a net rating of -44 last year to -11 this year, including 39% now seeing the Tory leader positively.

What reservations, if any, do Reform UK voters have about voting for the party?

More than four in ten of Reform UK’s current voters (43%) have no reservations at all about backing the party, though this varies from 50% among those who had already voted for the party in 2024, to 39% of those who have joined the fold from the Tories and just 31% of those gained from Labour.

Among those with reservations, a lack of experience is one of the biggest worries. One in six current Reform UK voters (17%), including 21-23% of those who voted for the Tories and Labour two years ago, say that a belief the party lacks the talent to be ready for government is one of their main doubts about voting Reform UK.

For some, though, it’s the experience they do have that’s the concern, with 14% of Reform UK’s voters, including 19% of those gained from Labour, saying that the presence of too many former Conservative MPs in the party is something that gives them pause for thought.

Defectors from Labour are also particularly likely to be concerned about reports of racism or extremism in the party, with 17% saying it is one of the top hesitations they have about Reform UK, as well as being disproportionately likely to not trust their new party to run the NHS, a major worry for 13%.

Can the Conservatives ‘unite the right’?

That a majority of Reform UK’s gains hold at least one reservation about voting for the party, as well as the growing popularity of opposing leaders among Nigel Farage’s coalition, does raise the question of just how solid Reform UK’s vote is.

In fact, when asked their likelihood to consider voting for each of the five major nationwide parties and Restore Britain, just 29% of current Reform UK voters exclusively say they will consider voting for the party.

More than four in ten (43%) are also willing to consider voting for Rupert Lowe’s party, rising to 49% among those who voted Reform UK in 2024, while four in ten (40%) are open to backing the Conservatives. Not only does this include 73% of Conservative to Reform UK switchers being willing to return home, but 33% of those who voted Reform UK in 2024 and 20% of those gained from Labour are also weighing up the Tories.

By contrast, a mere 11% of Labour to Reform UK switchers are currently willing to consider voting for Labour again.

To understand how the Conservatives could win over those currently intending to back Reform UK, it’s instructive to compare how relative attitudes to the two parties contrast between 2024 Conservative voters loyal to the party and those who’ve defected to Reform UK.

What is apparent is that the Conservatives have a relative strength when it comes to experience, with switchers more likely to feel their former party has the edge on having the talent required to form an effective government (35%) than their current party (20%). Among loyal Tories, the overwhelmingly majority backing the Conservatives on this measure, by 82% to 1%.

A similar pattern is seen on which party would better manage the economy and public finances: just 33% of Tory to Reform UK switchers feel Nigel Farage’s party has an advantage here, while 30% see both parties in equal terms and 22% think the Conservatives have the economic advantage. Among Tory loyalists, by contrast, 80% of loyalists see Kemi Badenoch’s party as the better potential stewards of the economy.

By contrast, immigration remains Reform UK’s domain, with 92% of switchers trusting that their new party will do a better job at managing immigration, while just 32% of loyalists trust the Conservatives more on the issue, who are matched by 32% of steadfast Conservatives who give this advantage to Reform UK.

Both groups largely side with their current choice (62-74%) on which is closer to their values, though with 24% of Conservative to Reform UK switchers feeling both parties equally share their values, alongside 5% who feel they are ideologically closer to their former choice.

Electability is a dicier issue for both parties, with just half of either group (50-51%) convinced that their current choice has the better chance of winning in their constituency, while 11-15% believe it’s the other party that hold the upper hand in their seat.

See the full results here and here

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