Big YouGov Voter Study 2026: How has the Lib Dem coalition changed over the last two years?

Most common reasons for voting Lib Dem are the party’s values and all other parties being worse

In contrast to the other major parties, support for the Lib Dems has been largely stable since the last election, consistently polling between 12-17% in our voting intention tracker, with no major surges and no substantial falls. While at first glance this looks similar to the 13% of the GB vote the party won two years ago, there has been significant churn in the Lib Dems’ support underneath the headline numbers.

Today, just 54% of the Lib Dems’ 2024 voters still intend to back the party, with the rest splintering in various directions. The largest groups of ‘defectors’ are the now don’t knows (11%) and the now Greens (10%). However, these losses have been replenished by a roughly equal number of ‘joiners’ from other sources, most notably the 9% of 2024 Labour voters who now intend to back the party.

To understand what has kept some voters with the party and put off others, the next chapter of our voter study examines attitudes to the party among Lib Dem voters past and present.

How do current Lib Dem voters feel about the party?

One of the main attractions of the Lib Dems for their current voters is their values, with 32% saying a belief that Ed Davey’s party is the one closest to their beliefs central to why they back the party. Of their specific stances, it’s their EU policy which has the strongest appeal, being a top attraction for 21% of Lib Dems.

The party’s long-term focus on groundwork in their strongholds does appear to have paid off somewhat, with 24% of Lib Dem voters saying their local MP or councillors are one of the main reasons they support the party. This is a higher rate than among supporters of any of the other major parties.

It’s not all enthusiasm, with fully 30% of current Lib Dem voters saying “while I don’t love the Lib Dems, all the other parties are worse” is one of the main reasons they support the party, while 15% say that they actually prefer another party that is unlikely to win where they live, and 14% are stirred by them being best-placed to stop Reform UK or the Conservatives.

Lib Dem loyalists and joiners are largely in alignment on the attractions of the party, though those who’ve started backing the party since the last election are more likely to be motivated by seeing the other parties as worse (36% vs 24%), while being less likely than the loyal 2024 voters to be attracted by the party’s local representatives (19% vs 29%) or the party’s stance on the EU (16% vs 26%).

However, of these voters, just 21% have no reservations at all about the Lib Dems, including only 17% of those who are newer to the party.

For some, a big problem with the Lib Dems is their lack of experience, with 25% of current Lib Dem voters saying this is one of their main reservations about the party. For others, though, it’s the experience the party does have that is the issue: for 23% of their voters, the Lib Dems’ role in the 2010-15 coalition is one of the main reasons they think twice about the party.

A concern that the Lib Dems can’t “win here” has long dogged the party and remains a main reservation for backing the party for 18% of those who currently intend to do so. This concern is nearly twice as prevalent among those who did not vote Lib Dem in 2024 than among those who did (23% vs 13%).

Other common complaints about the Lib Dems among their voters include a feeling they are too timid or quiet (a main reservation for 22% of current voters) and that it is unclear what the party actually stands for (17%), though for others (10%) it’s a case of knowing what the party’s policies are and not being fully onboard with them.

Why have Lib Dem defectors abandoned the party?

The same complaints are commonplace when asking those who’ve left the Lib Dems why they are no longer so keen on the party. Nearly three in ten Lib Dem defectors (28%) say one the main reasons they are put off is not being sure what the party stands for, while a belief the party won’t win in their local area is a top concern for 23%. Their lack of experience is one of the party’s biggest issues for 19% of those who formerly backed them.

The party’s perceived timidity and its role in the coalition with the Conservatives are each among the main ‘orange flags’ for 21% of Lib Dem defectors, with both particularly being problems for those who’ve switched to the Greens (29-35%).

By contrast, defectors to parties of the right are disproportionately concerned by the Lib Dems’ lack of experience (a main reservation for 27%), the party’s policies (19%) and Ed Davey’s leadership (16%).

Political favourability ratings among Lib Dem voters

Overall, two thirds of current Lib Dem voters (65%) have a favourable opinion of Ed Davey, relative to 14% seeing him unfavourably. This includes loyalists seeing him in a positive light by 73% to 11%, and gains viewing him favourably by 55% to 17%. Voters the Lib Dems have lost, however, are split 35% to 32% in their opinion of the soon-to-be longest-serving party leader.

But Davey is not the only major figure liked by Lib Dem voters. Andy Burnham has a positive net rating of +29 among loyal voters, as well as one of +12 among the more recent converts. Even among defectors from the Lib Dems, the likely next Labour leader is not hugely unpopular (-7).

Additionally, Lib Dem loyalists are one of the groups among whom Keir Starmer is least unpopular, with the outgoing prime minister dividing them down the middle, 48% to 49%.

Are the Lib Dems the only party their voters are open to voting for?

Even among those so far loyal to the Lib Dems, around four in ten (39-41%) are also willing to consider voting for either Labour or the Greens, while 16% see the Conservatives as an option. A similar picture is clear among the voters the party has gained: 39% are open to voting for Labour, with 32% willing to consider the Greens and 19% seeing the Tories as a plausible option.

On the other hand, less than half of the party’s defectors could be considered lost, with 53% currently saying they are happy to consider voting Lib Dem again in future, including 69% of those who’ve defected to the Greens.

See the full results here and here

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Photo: Getty