United Kingdom 
United States 
Deutschland 
France 
España 
Italia 
International 
A lack of delivery on the cost of living, broken promises and Keir Starmer himself are among the top reasons Labour’s 2024 coalition has fragmented
Labour’s landslide election victory two years ago was never the most secure: it was from a historically low 35% of the vote, with positive reasons notably absent in why their voters backed the party. Few though would have expected that Keir Starmer would be out within just two years, following a substantial collapse in the party’s popularity and a string of devastating election defeats, including losing a major election in Wales for the first time in a century.
At the core of this is a major fragmentation in Labour’s 2024 coalition: just 41% of those who backed the party two years ago say they intend to vote for the party again, with the Greens the largest beneficiaries of this (17%), though with significant numbers also defecting to the Lib Dems (9%), Reform UK (6%) and the Conservatives (4%), while a further 12% are unsure who to vote for.
This first chapter in a major new YouGov study of Britain’s voters today examines what has driven this splintering of Labour’s 2024 coalition over Keir Starmer’s premiership, and whether an Andy Burnham government can win them back.
Who are the Labour defectors?
While there are many differences between the groups of Labour defectors, one commonality across them is a heightened feeling of financial insecurity. While 51% of those sticking with Labour describe themselves as financially comfortable, this is true of just 39% of those who’ve abandoned the party over the last two years, including just 36% of those who now support the Greens and only 32% of those who now back Reform UK.
Beyond this, the groups are less united, with those who have defected to Reform UK being particularly unique. They are the only significant group of 2024 Labour voters to both be more likely to have obtained no qualifications above GCSE level (41%) than to hold a degree (24%), and to be more likely to have most recently worked in a routine or manual job (40%) than a professional one (29%).
Defectors to Reform UK are also the oldest group of 2024 Labour voters, with just 35% under the age of 50, and the most male, with just 37% being women. Additionally, with 62% having voted to Leave the EU, they are nearly four times as likely to have backed Brexit as those sticking with Labour (17%).
By contrast, the more numerous losses to the Greens are disproportionately young, with three quarters being under 50 (73%), while being more likely than those sticking with Labour to be women (55% vs 47%) and much more likely to identify as being not-heterosexual (24% vs 9%). Contrary to some stereotypes, though, they are not significantly more likely than loyalists to hold a degree (54% vs 52%) or to be from an ethnic minority background (17% vs 19%), while only 8% are full-time students.
Nearly two thirds of the now don’t knows (64%) are women, with this group also less likely than loyalists to be from an ethnic minority background (11%), to hold a degree (43%) or to have most recently been employed in a managerial or professional occupation (38%).
Labour to Lib Dem switchers are the defectors who look most like those sticking with Labour, though they are disproportionately southern, with 43% living in the South outside of London, relative to 24% of loyal Labour voters.
Nearly half of those switching to the Conservatives (47%) are returners who had backed the party in 2019, with 34% of those now backing Reform UK likewise having previously endorsed Boris Johnson’s Conservatives, relative to no more than 15% of any other group.
Why have Labour defectors abandoned the party?
Given that some of Labour’s losses have gravitated towards the Greens and others towards Reform UK, it’s perhaps unsurprising that the reasons they’ve turned their backs on Labour are quite varied, but there are some common complaints across the coalition.
Chief among them is the cost of living, with 31% of all Labour defectors saying a lack of improvement in this area is one of the main reasons they no longer intend to vote Labour. This includes at least 18% in all five main groups of defectors, rising to 36% among the now ‘don’t knows’ and 40% among those who now support the Conservatives, and reiterates Labour’s losses being less financially comfortable than their loyalists.
Other commonplace complaints across the coalition include beliefs that Labour have not delivered on their promises, that the government lacks direction and that Keir Starmer has been a poor prime minister. Each of these are cited as top reasons for stopping voting Labour by 26% of all defectors, including at least 15% in our five major groups.
Public services not improving enough is another uniform complaint, with 17-22% of all five main defector groups viewing it as central to their change of heart.
But there are also some factors that are more specific to certain groups of defectors. For instance, six in ten Labour to Reform UK switchers (61%) cite immigration still being too high as one of their main reasons for changing party, compared to no more than 18% of any other group. These voters are also particularly animated by Keir Starmer himself (a top reason for 43%), a perception of broken promises (36%) and a view Labour have been too left-wing or liberal (13%).
By contrast, a view Labour has been too right-wing is a top reason for crossing the floor for 44% of defectors to the Greens (among whom it’s the most common reason), as well as 17% of those who now back the Lib Dems. Those who now intend to vote Green are also disproportionately likely to be concerned by Labour’s stance on the conflict in Gaza (23%), stance on transgender rights (17%) and its rhetoric on immigration (11%).
Those who’ve switched to the Conservatives are more likely than other groups to lay the blame at Labour’s increases in taxes, with it a top reason for 19% of the red to blue voters, while the now don’t knows are the most likely to be motivated by a perceived lack of direction (35%).
What do Labour defectors see as the most important issues facing the country?
The cost of living’s centrality to Labour’s political woes can also be seen by looking at what the defectors consider to be the most important issues facing Britain. At least 50% in all five groups see it as one of the top issues facing the country, with it only beaten to the gold medal spot among those defecting to Reform UK, for whom immigration is the most common major concern: 79% seeing it as a top issue, relative to 51% saying so of the cost of living.
The NHS is also high up the agenda for voters Labour has lost, being viewed as one of the country’s most pressing problems by 27% of defectors to Reform UK and a greater 39-43% of other major defector groups, as is the economy in general, which is seen as a top issue by at least 21% in all five groups, including 36-37% of defectors to the Tories and Lib Dems.
Few other issues command similar levels of attention across Labour’s coalition. Defence, for instance, is seen as a top issue by 20-29% of those who now don’t know or intend to back the Lib Dems, Reform UK or the Tories, but just 6% of those who now favour the Greens.
By contrast, causes disproportionately mattering to those who’ve left for the Greens include poverty and inequality (35% seeing it as a top issue), the environment and climate change (33%), and racism and discrimination (23%). Losses to the Lib Dems are also more likely than other defectors to care about these issues, with 17-18% of those who now back either the Lib Dems or Greens additionally seeing Britain’s relationship with Europe as a top concern.
Beyond losses to Reform UK, immigration is also seen as a top issue by 47% of Labour to Conservative switchers and 35% of the now don’t knows, but just 17% of defectors to the Lib Dems and a mere 8% of those who’ve crossed to the Greens. The salience of crime and welfare benefits follow a similar pattern, with interest peaking among those who’ve switched to right-wing parties.
Can Labour win back the voters it has lost?
One of the key questions for Labour, and particularly for Andy Burnham, is whether or not the voters the party has lost can be won back.
At present, just 41% of Labour defectors say they would be willing to consider returning to the party at a future election, though this varies significantly depending on their current preference. At least half of those who now intend to back the Lib Dems (56%) or the Greens (51%) are receptive to voting Labour again, relative to just 27% of those who’ve switched to the Tories and only 11% of those who’ve defected to Reform UK.
Among those who know don’t know who to back, 42% say they would be open to voting Labour again, more than say so of any other party, though with 29% also open to the Lib Dems and 25% willing to consider the Greens too.
The now unsure are not the only group with multiple options on the table. Nearly four in ten of those who’ve moved from Labour to the Lib Dems (39%) or Greens (36%) are also open to voting for the other progressive party as well, while a similar proportion of those who’ve crossed to Reform UK (41%) are also considering Restore Britain.
Losses to Reform UK are, by a substantial margin, the most likely to say they’ve completely turned their backs on Labour, with 52% giving Labour a score of 0 out of 10 on this scale, indicating they would never consider voting for them. This compares to just 20% of those who’ve defected to the Conservatives and only 8-9% of those lost to the Lib Dems, Greens or ‘don’t know’.
How do Labour defectors feel about key politicians?
As to how much difference Andy Burnham can make, he is currently substantially more popular, or less unpopular in some cases, among all groups of Labour defector than Keir Starmer.
The gulf is greatest among those who’ve defected to the Greens, where Burnham has a net favourability rating of +41, 76 points above Starmer’s rating of -35. A similar though not as sharp contrast is apparent among those who’ve switched to the Lib Dems (+36 vs -11) and those who now don’t know (+24 vs -34).
Among defectors to the Conservatives and Reform UK, opinion towards the former mayor is mostly negative, with net ratings of -16 and -22 respectively, but this does contrast with overwhelmingly negative ratings of -62 and -79 for Starmer. Indeed, as many as 29-32% of these rightwards defectors have a favourable view of Burnham, relative to only 10-19% having one of the current prime minister.
However, a hurdle for Burnham is that, within each group of losses to another party, he is consistently viewed less positively than the leader of that opposing party. So while he might contrast very favourably with Starmer among losses to the Greens, he trails Zack Polanski’s +73 rating by a not insignificant 32 points, even if he is roughly level with Jeremy Corbyn (+46) among this more left-wing subsection of 2024 Labour voters.
Likewise, Burnham is significantly less popular than Nigel Farage among defectors to Reform UK (+64) and Kemi Badenoch among losses to the Conservatives (+46), with the latter also close to dividing those who currently favour Nigel Farage’s party (-11).
This is also the case relative to Ed Davey among Labour to Lib Dem voters (+50), although by a smaller margin of just 14 points. Davey is notably, though, the only non-Labour figure polled to have a net positive rating among multiple groups of 2024 Labour voter, additionally holding a score of +16 with defectors to the Greens and +9 among the now don’t knows.
How do Labour defectors feel their new and old parties compare?
Beyond changing to a more popular leader, there are other ways that Labour can get themselves a hearing among voters that have currently abandoned them, including changing how those voters see their former party relative to their newfound choice.
At present, when it comes to which party better shares their values, defectors largely side with their new party. This is particularly true of those who’ve switched to Reform UK and the Greens, 69-80% of whom feel ideologically closer to their present choice than Labour.
Being able to form an effective government, though, is a bigger issue for the Greens and Lib Dems among their new recruits from Labour. Just 13-18% of these defectors feel their new party is in a better position to govern well, relative to 35-40% who think Labour has more of the talent and experience needed for office and a further 19-21% who feel both parties have equal ability to form a working government.
Defectors to the Conservatives and Reform UK, however, tend to trust that their new party has a greater ability to form an effective government, though with as many as 28% of losses to Reform UK feeling that neither party has the skills to govern the country.
There’s less of a divide between defector groups when it comes to the 2024 Labour coalition’s two biggest issues – the cost of living and public services. In all cases, defectors exhibit a higher degree of trust in their new party than Labour, with the most split being defectors to the Conservatives on the NHS: 35% having more trust in the Tories, 21% having more trust in Labour and 26% not trusting either party.
Uniquely, Labour to Green defectors tend to believe Labour have the better chance of winning in their constituency, by 37% to 22%, suggesting that they could be susceptible to a tactical squeeze message.
By contrast, losses to the Lib Dems tend to see their new party as being ‘winning here’ where they live, by 45% to 21%. Given they more closely resemble Labour loyalists than other groups of defectors, as well as 18% saying that their preferred choice not being able to win in their constituency is one of the top reasons they would vote Lib Dem, this does indicate that a level of Labour to Lib Dem is a case of tactical voting.
See the full results here and here
Interested in taking YouGov surveys? What do you think about the Labour Party, British politics in general, and everything else? Have your say, join the YouGov panel, and get paid to share your thoughts. Sign up here.
Interested in commissioning YouGov research? We connect in real-time with real people around the world to gather their thoughts, behaviours, and opinions, to ensure that our research data is powered by reality. Explore our survey services here.
Photo: Getty