Most say Rachel Reeves has done a good job, but the chancellor is in close contention with Ed Miliband among members

Key takeaways

  • Labour members' top picks for chancellor are Ed Miliband (21%) and Rachel Reeves (20%)
  • 66% say Rachel Reeves has done well as chancellor
  • 69% think Ed Miliband would do well if he was appointed chancellor, with 62% saying the same of Yvette Cooper
  • Party members prioritise the cost of living over cutting carbon by 56% to 39%
  • Members split three-ways on whether welfare spending should rise, fall or remain the same
  • While Burnham has said he will maintain the triple lock, party members are split on whether or not to scrap it

A new YouGov poll has surveyed the attitudes of Labour members as the party transitions between Keir Starmer and Andy Burnham. This article examines the economic elements, highlighting the membership’s preferred choice of chancellor, priority on the cost of living versus net zero, raising income tax, welfare spending, and the triple lock.

Who do Labour members think Andy Burnham’s chancellor should be?

The most important role Andy Burnham will need to fill in his cabinet is that of his chancellor. It is not simply a choice that matters to the UK; Trump officials in the US have let it be known that giving the role to Ed Miliband ‘would be a mistake’.

The US administration will likely be disappointed to see that Miliband is a top contender among Labour members, with 21% saying that Andy Burnham should promote the current energy secretary to the Treasury.

This figure is matched by 20% who want Burnham to keep Rachel Reeves in her role. In a distant third place is Wes Streeting on just 6%, with all other contenders taking 5% of the vote or less.

With Reeves proving a top choice for the party membership, it is no surprise to see that most (66%) think she has done a good job as chancellor.

Again, Miliband’s figures closely match Reeves’s, with 69% thinking he would do a good job if he were made chancellor. Yvette Cooper, who only 5% of members listed as their first choice for the role, is also seen as likely to do a good job by 62% of party members.

It is worth noting, however, that fewer members think Reeves has done a “very good job” (10%) than anticipate that Miliband (25%) or Cooper (21%) would perform this highly.

By contrast, Labour members are split on whether former health secretary Wes Streeting would make a good chancellor – 39% think he would, but 43% disagree.

And when it comes to home secretary Shabana Mahmood, opinion tends more heavily to the negative, with the 39% saying she would be a bad chancellor outweighing the 30% who think she would do well.

Labour members prioritise the cost of living over net zero

The government has come in for criticism for forging ahead with its net zero plans at a time when many Britons are struggling with the cost of living. Previous YouGov research has shown that the wider public prioritise keeping household bills down over cutting carbon emissions, and so too do Labour members, by 56% to 39%.

Labour members don’t want to raise the Basic rate of income tax

The 2024 Labour manifesto pledged not to increase any of the Basic (20%), Higher (40%) or Additional (45%) income tax rates.

Party members certainly hold fast to the first pledge, with only 37% saying they support increasing the Basic rate of income tax, with 57% opposed.

However, they seem less bothered about the latter two, with 62% in favour of increasing the Higher rate of income tax, and 85% saying the same of the Additional rate of income tax.

Labour members are split on the welfare budget

During the Makerfield by-election campaign, Andy Burnham said he was not squeamish about saying he plans to reduce the welfare bill. However, he also ruled out ‘crude’ cuts as a means for doing so, suggesting a greater focus on helping people into work.

Our results show that party members are split on the issue of the welfare budget – 27% want to see welfare spending cut, while 34% say it should be maintained, and 35% think it should be increased.

Labour members are also split on the triple lock

In an ‘ask me anything’ session on the online forum Reddit, Burnham pledged to retain the state pension triple lock, saying it is important to keep to the commitment to do so in the 2024 Labour manifesto.

Members are divided on unpicking the triple lock. Just under half (47%) say that the triple lock should be scrapped, compared to 42% who want to keep it in place.

As might be expected, the generations differ greatly in their stance; 16-39 year old party members support scrapping the triple lock by 63% to 23%, while those aged 65 and above say it should be maintained by 63% to 33%.

See full results here

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Photo: Getty

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