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Immigration and a feeling the party has not learned from its defeat are central to the Conservatives’ losses, but 65% of defectors would consider voting for them again
The 2024 general election was the Conservatives’ worst general election result in their near-200-year history, what should have been a rock bottom. Instead, it has been followed by an even further fall in their popularity, with the Tories yet to poll above their general election vote share with YouGov, while suffering historic losses in the 2025 and 2026 local elections.
Driving this are the quarter (26%) of 2024 Conservative voters switching to Reform UK, though with a further 10% now unsure who to vote for and a smaller 7% defecting to the three main progressive parties, primarily the Lib Dems. Two years on, just 50% of those who backed Rishi Sunak’s re-election campaign would vote for Kemi Badenoch’s Conservatives.
Notably, this situation is largely unchanged from this time last year, despite a substantial increase in popularity for Badenoch. So, what is keeping defectors away from the party and is there hope of it being reversed?
Who are the Conservative defectors?
In some respects, the various groups of 2024 Conservative voters have a lot in common. They are all disproportionately old, with 62% of even the youngest group (those defecting to parties of the left and centre) being over 50, with this rising to 73% of those sticking with the party and 78% of those switching to Reform UK.
Likewise, 48-56% of all four groups own their home outright and 42-48% live in the South of England, in both cases relative to only around a third of all voters (35%).
Defectors to Reform UK are, though, distinct in a few ways. A mere 13% voted to Remain in the EU in 2016, relative to 33-39% of other groups, while they are less likely than loyal Tories to hold a degree (25% vs 35%) or to work (or have worked, if they are retired) in a managerial or professional occupation (31% vs 42%). They are also the only of the four groups to be majority male (56%).
The now unsure look similar to switchers to Reform UK in terms of their educational and socio-economic backgrounds, but are as likely to have voted Remain as loyal Conservatives (33%) and are the most female-dominated (67%).
What do Conservative defectors feel are the most important issues facing the country?
Although immigration is particularly prominent for those defecting to Reform UK, with 86% saying it is one of the top issues facing Britain today, even among those switching to the Lib Dems, Labour or Greens, it also (jointly) claims the top spot, with 42% seeing as one of the most pressing matters, a proportion in line with the British public as a whole.
Beyond immigration, defence and the cost of living are other major concerns for ex-Tories, with 36-38% of all defectors seeing them as among the most important issues facing the country, followed by the NHS and the wider economy, top issues for 27-28%. Among these four, defence is a particular worry for those who now intend to vote for Reform UK, while the other three are more prominent among those who are now unsure or favour progressive parties.
Defectors to Reform UK are also particularly likely to see welfare benefits (28%) and crime and policing (23%) as among the most important issues facing the country, while those who’ve moved to more left-wing parties are disproportionately likely to emphasise the environment (17%) and our relationship with the EU (13%).
Why have Conservative defectors left the party?
Immigration is not just one of the most important issues for most of those who’ve left the Conservatives, it’s also one of the most common reasons why they’ve left. Three in ten defectors (31%), rising to 43% of those who’ve switched to Reform UK, say that a lack of trust in the Tories to manage immigration is one of the main reasons they’ve moved away from the party.
The legacy of their time in government also hangs heavy over the Tories, with 36% of defectors giving a belief that the party has not learned from their defeat as a main reason for abandoning the party, while 27% more expressly cite a feeling that the Conservatives did a bad job or behaved poorly in office.
Trust issues extend beyond immigration, with 24% of those who no longer intend to vote Conservative saying that an inability to be sure they’ll keep their promises was key to this decision. A lack of trust in the party to manage the NHS is additionally given as a reason by 8% of defectors, rising to 14% of those who’ve moved to progressive parties.
The party’s specific policies and beliefs seem to be less of a concern for defectors, though 9%, including 13% of those switching to Reform UK, cite a belief the party is too left-wing as part of their reasoning, while 5% say not liking the party’s policies influenced their change of heart.
On the other hand, not being sure what the party stands for is a main reason for no longer backing the Tories for 11% of defectors, with this particularly prevalent among those who now don’t know which party to back (18%).
For some, however, it’s really just a tactical decision, with 16% of defectors attributing their change in voting intention to the Conservatives being unlikely to win in their constituency.
Just 8% of defectors say Kemi Badenoch’s leadership is a reason they’ve abandoned the party, though this does rise to 17% among those moving to the Lib Dems, Labour or the Greens. By contrast, 13% of defectors say they’ve left because of other figures in the party, in spite of them liking Kemi Badenoch.
Can the Conservatives win back their defectors?
Indeed, Kemi Badenoch is – if anything – an asset for the Conservatives among their defectors, who overall have a favourable opinion of her by a margin of 62% to 26%.
Additionally, this opinion has markedly improved among comparable groups since this time last year, with her net rating surging from +20 to +58 among defectors to Reform UK, flipping from -15 to +27 among the now unsure, and improving from -16 to -2 among voters the Tories have lost to progressive parties.
One issue, though, is that among defectors to Reform UK, she still trails Nigel Farage’s extremely positive rating of +89 by a clear margin, with just 20% of such voters having a *very* favourable of Badenoch, relative to 47% looking similarly on Farage.
All is not lost for the Conservatives with these voters, however, with 73% of defectors to Reform UK being willing to consider returning to the Tories at the next election, though with 31% open to moving further rightwards to Restore Britain.
Other Conservative losses are also mostly open to returning home, with 63% of the now unsure and 58% of those who’ve switched to progressive parties willing to consider voting for the Conservatives again.
No alternative party is being considered by more than 26% of those who are now don’t knows, while 49% of all defectors to progressive parties are willing to consider the Lib Dems, with 36% open to Labour and 25% viewing the Greens as a potential vote.
Reform UK’s relative weakness among the now don’t knows, despite being demographically similar in many ways to those who’ve defected outright to the populist party, is likely explained by Nigel Farage’s significantly negative favourability rating of -47 in this group.
See the full results here and here
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Photo: Getty