2020 Presidential Election Model
In recent US and UK elections, YouGov has used a technique called Multilevel Regression and Post-stratification (or ‘MRP’ for short) to produce estimates for states in the US and constituencies in the UK. In cooperation with CBS News, YouGov has conducted interviews in every state over the course of the campaign. These final estimates were published on November 1st, are based on 99,049 interviews, and represent YouGov’s best assessment of the state of the race.
Last updated: 2020-11-01
Popular vote
Electoral college
Joe
Biden
53.2%
364
Donald
Trump
44.3%
174
District of Columbia
3 electoral votesHawaii
4 electoral votesVermont
3 electoral votesMassachusetts
11 electoral votesMaryland
10 electoral votesCalifornia
55 electoral votesNew York
29 electoral votesRhode Island
4 electoral votesConnecticut
7 electoral votesWashington
12 electoral votesIllinois
20 electoral votesNew Jersey
14 electoral votesDelaware
3 electoral votesOregon
7 electoral votesNew Mexico
5 electoral votesColorado
9 electoral votesMaine
4 electoral votesVirginia
13 electoral votesNevada
6 electoral votesNew Hampshire
4 electoral votesMinnesota
10 electoral votesMichigan
16 electoral votesWisconsin
10 electoral votesPennsylvania
20 electoral votesArizona
11 electoral votesFlorida
29 electoral votesGeorgia
16 electoral votesNorth Carolina
15 electoral votesTexas
38 electoral votesOhio
18 electoral votesIowa
6 electoral votesSouth Carolina
9 electoral votesAlaska
3 electoral votesKansas
6 electoral votesUtah
6 electoral votesMontana
3 electoral votesIndiana
11 electoral votesMissouri
10 electoral votesMississippi
6 electoral votesLouisiana
8 electoral votesTennessee
11 electoral votesNebraska
5 electoral votesArkansas
6 electoral votesAlabama
9 electoral votesSouth Dakota
3 electoral votesKentucky
8 electoral votesIdaho
4 electoral votesOklahoma
7 electoral votesNorth Dakota
3 electoral votesWest Virginia
5 electoral votesWyoming
3 electoral votesState Vote Estimates
A state by state look at the estimated vote for each candidate, with 2016 results for comparison.
State | Biden % | Trump % | Lead % | 2016 Election |
|---|