The third and final release of YouGov's model shows Republicans taking the Senate by a narrow margin, and Democrats gaining control of the House by an even smaller margin.

The third and final release of our model estimating 2024 presidential-election votes in every state shows Kamala Harris leading Donald Trump by 50% to 47% in the national popular vote less than a week before Election Day.

The second release of YouGov's 2024 congressional model shows Republicans maintaining a slight edge to control the Senate, and Democrats a slim favorite to win the House.

The second release of YouGov's model estimating 2024 presidential-election votes in every state shows Kamala Harris leading Donald Trump by 250 electoral votes to 219, with 69 electoral votes as tossups.

A guide to the methodology behind YouGov's use of multilevel regression with post-stratification (MRP) to project how Americans will vote in the 2024 election.

YouGov shows Republicans with a slight edge to control the Senate, and Democrats more likely than not to control the House. This would be a reversal from the current Congress, in which Democrats control the Senate and Republicans control the House.

Harris was the clear winner of the debate but her narrow lead over Trump in the election was the same after the debate as before it.

We have Harris leading in 23 states and Washington D.C. with 256 electoral votes and Trump leading in 25 states with 235 electoral votes.

YouGov polled Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin and showed Harris leading in four. Democratic candidates lead in all five states with a Senate race.

YouGov polled seven battleground states – Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin – and showed the long odds Biden faces for getting re-elected. Democratic Senate candidates are doing better.