YouGov Business VUCA Index: Q2 2026

Earlier this year, we released our first quarterly VUCA Index, in which we asked UK businesses about the Volatility, Uncertainty, Complexity, and Ambiguity they had recently faced. We provided an individual score for these measures, and we also averaged them to provide an overall VUCA score that combined each of these metrics. 

The context of our last survey was somewhat different: the survey for Q1 was fielded just before the escalation of conflict involving Iran, while Q2’s survey was fielded three months into the period of ongoing tensions – a backdrop that may help explain why Volatility, in particular, has intensified.

Volatility surges, even as overall VUCA Index holds steady

The headline VUCA score barely moved in Q2, up from 41.8 to 42.3. But that stability hides a real shift underneath. Volatility rose sharply to 54.8, while Uncertainty and Complexity both eased. The pressure on UK businesses has not grown but narrowed in the wake of rapid unpredictable change.

Volatility rose by 3.6 points between quarters, the largest movement of any metric. Uncertainty and Complexity both fell, while Ambiguity increased slightly. The gap between Volatility and the other three measures has widened, possibly reinforcing that change and unpredictability, rather than structural difficulty, remain the core challenge for UK businesses.

Larger businesses are experiencing greater-than-average VUCA increases

Larger businesses are feeling the pressure more, with VUCA scores rising, and the gap between them and the rest is growing. Medium and large businesses both saw scores rise in Q2, while small businesses eased and microbusinesses remained flat. The gap between the largest and smallest businesses has widened from 12.0 points to 13.8.

Confidence has softened, even as outlook holds firm

Beyond the VUCA score, we ask other questions revolving around sentiment in our VUCA Index survey. For example, we poll businesses on whether they are or are not confident in operating effectively; what their outlook is for the next 12 months; and about their levels of preparedness. While outlook remains stable, this confidence is slipping. Some 42% of decision makers hold a positive 12-month outlook, almost unchanged from Q1, while negative sentiment rose from 25% to 28%. Confidence in operating effectively fell more noticeably, from 55% net confidence to 49%, and the share of businesses describing themselves as prepared for increased pressure ahead also dropped, from 55% to 51%. Outlook has barely shifted, but self-assessed readiness has, and that gap is worth monitoring closely going into Q3.

These findings sit alongside YouGov's B2B Sentiment Tracker, which similarly found that businesses are more confident in their own prospects than in the wider economy.

Speed beats certainty

Businesses still believe speed matters more than getting it right. 53% say the cost of a slow decision outweighs the cost of a wrong one, unchanged from Q1. Agreement that speed matters more than complete information has actually grown, up from 45% to 47%. And when asked what hurts more, a wrong call or a slow one, businesses pick slow every time: 21% versus 14% in Q1, 18% versus 12% in Q2. Decision ownership remains clear for most businesses, holding steady at around two thirds.

Overall takeaway

VUCA scores have not increased. It has become more concentrated and more acute. Volatility now leads as the dominant force, and larger businesses continue to feel it more than smaller ones.

"Volatility is now the dominant force shaping how businesses make decisions. Confidence and preparedness have begun to slip even as outlook holds steady. Businesses feel no worse about the future, but they feel less ready for it. That disconnect will be critical to watch out for going into the next quarter." – Vivek Pillai, Research Manager, YouGov.

Methodology

Data is based on a survey of 513 UK business decision makers conducted between 26 and 31 May 2026. Respondents were asked to what extent volatility, uncertainty, complexity and ambiguity negatively affect their business. Responses were converted into an index score from 0 to 100, where 0 indicates no negative impact and 100 indicates a great deal of negative impact. The overall VUCA score is the average of the four component scores. This is Wave 2 of a quarterly tracking study; Wave 1 fieldwork ran in May 2026. The figures have been weighted and are representative of British business size and region.