Two-thirds of Americans think Donald Trump has been ineffective in negotiations with Iran

Most Americans think the war in Iran is not close to an end, according to the latest Economist / YouGov Poll. Almost all Americans (92%) think the war will last for more than a month longer than it has already lasted. Nearly half of that group (42% of all Americans) think it will last for a year or more. Very few Americans (8%) think the war will end in under a month, including only 2% who think it will end in a week or less.

Overwhelming majorities of Democrats (96%), Independents (92%), and Republicans (87%) think the war will last for more than a month longer. But while a majority (56%) of Democrats and half (49%) of Independents think the war will last for a year or more, only 20% of Republicans say the same. Among Republicans, those who say they are not MAGA supporters are about three times as likely as MAGA supporters to think the war will last another year or more (31% vs. 11%).

The share of Americans who believe the war will last for another year or more has increased in the past few months. Today, 42% of Americans say the war will last for a year or more; in early April, only about one-quarter (27%) thought it would last so long. At the same time, the share who think the war will last for less than a month longer has gotten smaller. Today, the share of Americans who think the war will end that quickly is half what it was at the start of the war (8% vs. 20%).

Last week's Economist / YouGov Poll found that 68% of Americans say the U.S. should make a deal to end the war in Iran as quickly as possible, while only 11% say it shouldn't. As nonetheless few Americans believe the war is currently close to an end, that suggests Americans don't expect the U.S.'s negotiations with Iran to yield the outcome they want. And this week's poll finds widespread dissatisfaction with Donald Trump's negotiations. Two-thirds (67%) of Americans say that Trump has been somewhat or very ineffective in negotiating with Iran, while only one-third (33%) say he has been effective.

Almost all Democrats (93%) and most Independents (76%) say Trump has been ineffective in negotiations. In contrast, 68% of Republicans say he has been effective and only 32% say he has been ineffective. MAGA Republicans overwhelmingly say Trump has been effective in negotiating (78% vs. 22% who say he's been ineffective), but non-MAGA Republicans are about evenly split on this question (48% vs. 52%).

Beliefs about how long the war will last are closely tied to beliefs about Trump's negotiating skills. Only 44% of Americans who think the war will continue for less than a month more say Trump has been an ineffective negotiator. But very few Americans think the war will come to an end so quickly. A majority (56%) of Americans who think the war will last between a month and a year more say Trump has been an ineffective negotiator. And the growing share of Americans who think the war will last another year or more overwhelmingly say Trump has been ineffective (85%).

A majority (62%) of Americans somewhat or strongly disapprove of Trump's handling of the situation in Iran, while about half as many (29%) approve. Americans who think the war will last for another year or more are significantly more likely to disapprove of Trump's handling of Iran than are those who think the war will end more quickly. The overwhelming majority (82%) of those who think the war will last for another year or more disapprove of Trump's handling of Iran. In contrast, about half (49%) of those who think the war will last for between a month and a year and only about one-third (35%) of those who think the war will end in less than a month disapprove of Trump's handling.

An increase in expectation of the Iran war's length may help explain why disapproval of Trump's handling of Iran has increased since the start of the war. In the first Economist / YouGov Poll conducted entirely after the start of the war in early March, about half (52%) of Americans disapproved of Trump's handling of the situation. That was a modest increase from a late February poll immediately before the war, in which 48% of Americans disapproved of Trump's handling. But over the course of the war, that share has grown to a 62% majority.

Image: Getty (Majid Saeedi / Stringer)

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