Democrats have a double-digit lead over Republicans in vote preference for Congress among likely voters, according to the latest Economist / YouGov Poll. 51% of likely voters say they'll vote for the Democratic candidate in their districts, while 39% would vote for the Republican candidate — an 11-point lead for Democrats.
The Economist / YouGov Poll defines likely voters as U.S. adult citizens who meet two criteria: They are either registered to vote (74% of all adult citizens) or say they will be registered to vote by the November elections (5%), and they either say they will definitely vote in November or say they have already voted (73% of those who are registered or plan to register, and 57% of all citizens). Respondents were asked about the candidates for the U.S. House of Representatives in their district by the candidates' names.
Among likely voters, about 90% of Democrats and about 90% of Republicans say they'll vote for their party's candidate. But Independents favor Democrats by about a two-to-one ratio: 54% say they'll vote for Democratic candidates and 27% for Republican candidates.
Men who are likely voters are evenly split between Democratic and Republican candidates (45% vs. 45%), while women favor Democrats by more than 20 points (56% vs. 35%). Adults under 30 overwhelmingly support Democratic candidates (68% vs. 27%), while Democrats lead among 30- to 44-year-olds (51% vs. 34%) and those 65 and older (50% vs. 43%); 45- to 64-year-olds are evenly divided (45% vs. 45%). Democrats win likely voters without college degrees by 6 points (48% vs. 43%), and have a 19-point lead among those with college degrees.
Democrats have led by double digits among likely voters in the past two Economist / YouGov Polls. Their 11-point lead among likely voters is much larger than their 4-point advantage among all registered voters.
Democrats lead Republicans big among likely voters, by 51% to 39%. In contrast, Republicans have the advantage among the less definite voters who are not considered likely voters: among those who say they'll probably vote, 28% would vote for Democrats and 49% for Republicans, while among those who say they maybe, probably won't, or definitely won't vote, Republicans have a 3-point lead (25% vs. 28%).
Overall, 36% of U.S. adult citizens strongly or somewhat approve of how Trump is handling his job as president, and 59% disapprove, for a net job approval of -23. Among likely voters, 40% approve and 59% disapprove, a net of -19. Trump's net approval among U.S. adult citizens is up from his nadir earlier this summer, but still far below Trump's net approval at this point in his first term.
Among Election Day registered voters — those either registered to vote or who say they'll register by Election Day — 49% strongly disapprove of Trump's job performance, and 80% of them say they will definitely vote in November. The same is true of the 19% who strongly approve of Trump: 80% say they'll definitely vote. A slightly smaller 68% of Election Day registered voters who somewhat approve of Trump (who make up 20% of the overall group) say they'll definitely vote.
The 8% of Election Day registered voters who somewhat disapprove of Trump lean conservative: 57% of them voted for Trump in 2024, and only 20% voted for Kamala Harris; in 2026 more say they'll vote for Republicans than for Democrats (40% vs. 27%). But only 39% of them say they'll definitely vote in November. Only 33% of this group follows political news most of the time — compared to 53% of all Election Day registered voters.
Most Americans say their view of Trump has not changed since he was elected in 2024. Only 29% say their view of Trump has changed at least a little, while 71% say it hasn't changed at all. But Republicans and Trump's 2024 voters are more likely than others to say their opinion of Trump has changed. 38% of Republicans say they've changed how they see Trump at least a little, as have 36% of his 2024 voters. Only 18% of Democrats and 17% of Harris voters have changed their view of Trump, compared to 30% of Independents and 34% of non-voters in 2024. 29% of Republicans who say they're MAGA supporters have changed their view of Trump, as have 49% of non-MAGA Republicans.
91% of Republicans who say their opinion of Trump hasn't changed since the 2024 election plan to vote for a Republican in their House district this year; that figure is only 77% among Republicans whose opinion of Trump has changed.
Image: Getty (CJ Gunther / Stringer)
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