Democratic candidates lead Republican candidates by 14 points among likely voters in the upcoming midterm elections, according to the latest Economist / YouGov Poll. 52% of likely voters say they would vote for the Democratic candidate in their district, while only 38% would vote for the Republican candidate.
This is the largest lead Economist / YouGov Polls have found in the three weeks since beginning to ask registered voters how likely they are to vote in the congressional election. The poll defines likely voters as those U.S. adult citizens who are either registered to vote or say they will be registered to vote by the November elections, and who either say they will definitely vote in November or say they have already voted; 95% of likely voters are already registered to vote and 5% say they plan to register in time to vote.
Among Americans who are already registered to vote, Democrats have a 7-point lead (45% vs. 38%), which is the largest Democratic lead among this group since spring 2025, when Economist / YouGov Polls began asking about vote intent in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives election. (This group does not include adult citizens who are not registered to vote but who say they will register to vote by Election Day.)
Another recent change to Economist / YouGov Polls as Election Day approaches: asking all respondents which of the congressional candidates in their district they plan to vote for, rather than asking which party they expect to support without naming candidates.
Almost all Democrats say they will support the Democratic candidate running in their district (93%), and almost all Republicans say they'll support their local Republican candidate (90%). But Independents break by around two-to-one in favor of Democratic candidates (52% vs. 27%). Democrats lead among every major age group. They lead among voters without college degrees by 7 percentage points and among voters with college degrees by 22 points. Men are closely divided (44% Democratic vs. 47% Republican), while women prefer Democratic candidates by a 29-point margin (59% vs. 30%).
Likely voters who say they will vote for Democratic candidates for the House are more likely than supporters of Republican candidates to say they're more enthusiastic about voting this year than in recent congressional elections (52% vs. 38%).
Among likely voters in states with U.S. Senate elections this year, 53% say they will vote for the Democratic candidate and 42% for the Republican candidate, an 11-point lead. The question names the candidates in each respondent's state.
The big Democratic leads for Senate and House come as 34% of U.S. adult citizens strongly approve of Donald Trump's job handling, and 61% disapprove — a net job approval of -27. That's in line with recent months, and lower than Trump's job approval over most of his second term and all of his first term.
YouGov asked respondents to pick which candidates they would support in four hypothetical matchups between two pairs of candidates:
- Two Democrats:
- A Democratic socialist who supports Medicare for All, ending military aid to Israel, and abolishing ICE
- A liberal Democrat who wants to protect Obamacare (ACA) and increase support for child care and housing, and who opposes tariffs
- And two Republicans:
- A conservative Republican who supports tax cuts, repealing Obamacare, and a ban on most abortions
- A MAGA Republican who supports mass deportations and always votes with Trump
We found that Democratic candidates have sizable leads among likely voters in all four scenarios. The "liberal Democrat" candidate has larger leads than the "Democratic socialist" candidate, and the "conservative Republican" candidate does better than the "MAGA Republican" candidate, but in all cases the candidate variations only affect the size of the Democratic lead, not which candidate is ahead. In the most one-sided matchup, the liberal Democrat leads the MAGA Republican by 22 points (58% vs. 36%). And in the closest matchup, the Democratic socialist leads the conservative Republican by 12 points (52% vs. 40%).
Image: Getty (Tom Brenner / Stringer)
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