And most Britons also lack confidence in the armed forces’ ability to defend the country

Key takeaways

  • 53% of Britons think World War 3 is likely within 5-10 years
  • This is a 12pt increase since April 2025
  • Only 36% are confident in the armed forces' ability to defend the country
  • Reform UK voters are much less likely to be confident than other voters

Richard Shirreff, formerly deputy supreme allied commander of NATO in Europe, has warned that future historians will look back on the US-Israel conflict with Iran as “the final catalyst for a third world war”.

Now a new YouGov survey finds that 53% of Britons think it is likely that there will be another world war within the next 5-10 years, including 16% who consider it “very likely”.

This represents a 12pt increase since April last year, including an 8pt increase in “very likely”.

Only one in three (32%) consider World War 3 unlikely, with just 7% deeming the odds “very unlikely”.

Expectations are relatively similar across the political spectrum, ranging from 47% of Lib Dem voters to 59% of Reform UK voters.

Should a third world war come, our results also show that most Britons (54%) say they have little to no confidence in the UK armed forces’ ability to effectively defend the country.

Only a little over a third are confident (36%), with just 5% expressing “a great deal of confidence”.

These figures remain largely unchanged from last year’s study.

Reform UK voters are notably less likely to have confidence in the armed forces (22%) than voters for other parties (34-44%).

Tables coming shortly

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