Britons back Burnham over opponents on who would make the better PM by margins of at least 16 points
Key takeaways
- In a head-to-head against Nigel Farage, most Britons (52%) back Andy Burnham to be the better PM, while just 22% favour the Reform UK leader
- Britons tend to believe Andy Burnham would make a better PM than Kemi Badenoch by 42% to 26%
- Kemi Badenoch’s lead over Nigel Farage in a head-to-head has increased to 29 points, up from 24 points at the end of July and having been near-tied last year, with 23% of 2024 Reform voters now favouring the Tory leader
- In a head-to-head between Andy Burnham and Zack Polanski, Britons favour the Labour leader by a decisive 50% to 8%, with 2024 Green voters near evenly split 37% to 38% between the two leaders
While Labour’s increase in voting intention polls since Keir Starmer left office might not be quite the ‘Burnham bounce’ that some in the party had hoped for, with the party only drawing level with Reform UK so far, the same cannot be said when it comes to how the new prime minister compares to his opponents…
In ‘head-to-heads’ against the leaders of each of the other four major parties, Britons consistently tend to believe that Andy Burnham would make the better prime minister by double-digit margins, with our latest figures showing these advantages have grown to their highest levels to date over the last month.
Even against Kemi Badenoch, his toughest competition on this metric, Burnham leads by a decisive 16 points, up from a 12 point margin in July and a marked contrast from the Tory leader being tied with Keir Starmer in May.
With 42% of Britons believing Burnham would make a better prime minister than Kemi Badenoch, he has reached the highest level for a Labour leader on our tracker since October 2022, when the public favoured Starmer over Truss by a margin of 42% to 13%. Nonetheless, 26% of Britons feel Badenoch would be more effective in the job.
Of course, over the last two years, it is Reform who have often been painted as Labour’s main challenger for power, rather than the Tories. However, a majority of Britons (52%) back Andy Burnham to be a better prime minister than Nigel Farage, up four points since the end of July, while just 22% favour the abilities of the Reform leader. This 30 point advantage for Burnham compares to the public favouring Starmer over Farage by a margin of just 10 points ahead of the local elections in May.
Burnham’s lead, though, is even more substantial over the leaders of opposing progressive parties, with the public feeling he would be a better PM than Lib Dem leader Ed Davey by 44% to 9% and a more successful head of government than Green leader Zack Polanski by 50% to 8%.
Indeed, Burnham’s 42 point advantage over Polanski is such that those who backed the Greens in 2024 are roughly evenly split 37% to 38% over which of the two leaders would make the better PM.
Although Badenoch might be losing out against Burnham, her personal advantage over Farage is continuing to grow in the battle for the right. Nearly half of Britons (45%) now feel the Tory leader is the more suitable occupant of Number 10, up four points over the last month, while just 16% favour the recently re-elected Clacton MP, the lowest figure recorded for him on our tracker to date.
This now 29 point advantage for Badenoch is a substantial turnaround from this time last year, when the public were roughly evenly divided between the two leaders on this question, including 2024 Conservative voters being roughly as likely to favour Farage as Badenoch (36% vs 29%).
Today, 65% of Conservative voters feel Badenoch would be the better PM, relative to a halved 18% favouring Farage. Reform UK voters have also become more receptive to Badenoch, with the proportion backing their party’s leader in this duel falling from 73% to 56% over the last year, while the share favouring the Tory leader has risen from 4% to 23%.
Majorities of Labour and Lib Dem voters (53-56%) now also back Badenoch on this question, up from only a quarter (24%) last August.
Britons now also favour Kemi Badenoch over Ed Davey by a clear margin of 33% to 24%, having been more likely to see the Lib Dem leader as prime ministerial material as recently as last summer, while also seeing the Conservative leader as being better placed for the job than Zack Polanski by 39% to 20%.
The public do, though, prefer Davey for PM over either Farage (38% vs 24%) or Polanski (28% vs 14%), while a scenario in which the Green and Reform UK leaders face off against each other is the only one that leads to a victory for Polanski, even if by a slim margin of 31% to 27%.
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Photo: Getty