In their 2024 election manifesto, the Labour party promised not to raise taxes for working people, specifically income tax, National Insurance, and VAT.
While the government is unlikely to break this pledge, the forthcoming Budget has prompted discussion on balancing tax and spending priorities. It is within this context we have asked: if the government did feel that it had to raise one of these taxes, which would Britons prefer it be?
The most common answer, at 25%, is income tax, with the alternative money-raisers of VAT and National Insurance (NI) about equally preferred by 17% and 16% respectively. This leaves 41% of the public who are unable to pick between them.
Those who voted Labour, Lib Dem or Green in 2024 express a clear preference for income tax, with 31-37% picking this option, relative to only 11-18% for either of VAT or NI. By contrast, Tory and Reform voters are much more evenly split with their choices; between 17-23% for each option among Conservatives and 16-20% for Reform voters.
While similar numbers across all age groups opt to increase income tax (23-28%) or VAT (13-19%), the over-65s are notably more likely to instead say that National Insurance – which pensioners do not have to pay – should be the one to rise (24%) relative to younger age groups (13-16%).
Why did people make the choice they made?
We subsequently asked Britons why, in their own words, they opted for the tax that they did, using YouGov’s AI language model to categorise the results.
For those who prioritise increasing income tax over the other two options, the most common reason was that ‘those who can afford should pay more’ (37%). This is cited by 44% of Labour voters who chose income tax.
The next most common reason, at 13%, was that ‘it would be fairer’, while in joint third were justifications that it would mean the tax rise would ‘be spread across everyone’ (10%) or it ‘would not affect low-income individuals as much’ (10%).
Of those who opt for NI rises, a quarter (25%) explained this has the least impact on themselves personally. This was a particularly common justification among the over-65s who chose NI, at 46%, as well as being the top reason for Conservative (33%), and Reform UK voters (30%).
A further 17% say they prefer to increase NI as the money raised would be used for funding public services, with no other category given by more than single-digit proportions of people.
For those who choose VAT increases, a third (32%) say this is because you can effectively control how much you pay. This was again a particularly common justification among the over-65s, at 46%.
A further 16% prefer raising VAT over the other options as it would spread the pain across everyone, while 10% suggest that this is because VAT taxes spending and/or luxuries rather than income.
Who do Britons think is most affected by tax rises?
With Labour having identified this trio of taxes as being those that disproportionately affect ‘working people’, to what extent do the public see increases in these rates as affecting those on lower or higher incomes more?
Certainly, the public see raising the basic rate of income tax as affecting those on lower incomes more, with 52% saying so versus 30% who think it will affect both lower and higher incomes equally.
The public are, however, divided when it comes to raising National Insurance contributions: 41% think it affects lower incomes more, while a further 41% think it affects both income groups equally. Conservative and Reform UK voters primarily say such rises will impact both groups equally, while Green voters think they predominantly affect those on lower incomes, and Labour and Lib Dem voters are relatively split.
And when it comes to VAT rises, the most common view is that they would impact both groups equally (47%), followed by 38% who think it will affect lower incomes more. Again, most Conservative and Reform UK voters say such rises will impact both groups equally, whereas Labour and Lib Dems are much more evenly split – only the Greens clearly think they affect those on lower incomes more.
When asked about raising the higher rate of income tax and also Capital Gains Tax – the tax imposed on the profit people make when they sell an asset that has increased in value – the public instead see these taxes as primarily affecting those on higher incomes, at 64% and 52% respectively.
Methodology
- Sample size: An online survey of 4,387 adults aged 18+ living in Great Britain
- Fieldwork: 22-26 October 2026
- Commissioned by: YouGov
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Photo: Getty
