The two child cap on the number of children parents can claim child-related welfare benefits for has been a controversial policy since it was first introduced in 2017, being repeatedly linked to a disproportionate increase in child poverty in larger families.

Having initially continued the policy after they came to power, Labour abolished the cap earlier this year, with Keir Starmer later calling this his proudest achievement as prime minister. Now, however, the Conservatives have said they would reintroduce the policy if they came to power, in order to fund an increase in defence spending.

Ostensibly, this would be a popular policy from the Conservatives. Six in ten Britons (61%) say they support the re-introduction of the two child benefit limit in principle, while just 24% oppose the idea.

Not just does this policy have the backing of 83-84% of Conservative and Reform UK voters, but 63% of Lib Dems and a majority of Labour voters (54%) also support a reintroduction of the cap. Those who voted Green in 2024, though, are near evenly split, with 40% in favour and 43% against.

However, there are caveats to this support, most notably that awareness of any link between the cap and child poverty is low, with just 20% of Britons saying they are under the impression that the policy had contributed to higher levels of child poverty, relative to 37% who believe the limit made no difference. A further 35% are unsure about any impact the cap had; positive, negative or neutral.

Among those who support reintroducing the cap, only 8% believe the original policy contributed to an increase in levels of child poverty, while 53% regard it as having made no difference. These numbers are near-flipped among those opposed to the limit’s return, 54% of whom think the policy increased levels of child poverty and 12% of whom understand it to have made no difference.

Indeed, beyond thinking about the two child cap, Britons tend to believe the government should prioritise reducing child poverty over limiting the amount it spends on child-related welfare benefits, by a margin of 46% to 32%.

This includes varyingly decisive majorities of Green (69%), Labour (62%) and Lib Dem voters (56%) feeling the government should prioritise doing all it can to reduce child poverty, in contrast to majorities of those who backed Reform (61%) and the Conservatives (55%) in 2024 believing that it is more important to limit the amount of money the government spends on child-related welfare benefits.

And when asked bluntly whether they would support reintroducing the cap if there was evidence of a link between it and increased levels of child poverty, the public are more divided: 36% say they would still back a return of the limit, while 41% say they would be opposed.

Which is the true support figure?

Of course, this produces two different support figures, begging the question of which is the ‘truer’ figure. While there are some who would like to see the ‘informed’ support figure (36%) as more accurate, it is only a measure of what support for the policy would be if the link between the cap and child poverty was widely accepted or acknowledged by the public, which as our awareness question shows, is not the case.

In terms of how the public naturally relate to the policy, the ‘generic’ support figure (61%) is thus the accurate reflection of public opinion as it stands, even if it is not wholly consistent with the ‘trade-off’ question. While the public might be more likely to prioritise eliminating child poverty than restraining the child benefit budget, for many, this is not inconsistent with supporting the two child cap, which few outright link to poverty.

Additionally, the policy’s link to poverty is only one argument that might alter support for the policy either way. In a vacuum, other arguments, such as the Conservatives pitting welfare spending against defence spending, might strengthen some Britons’ support for the policy.

See the full results here

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