Key takeaways
- First poll since May’s Senedd elections – and Andy Burnham taking over as PM – finds Labour’s Westminster vote share in Wales up 10 points, to 18%
- Reform suffer a seven point decline since May, with the Greens also down five
- 15% of 2026 Plaid voters intend to back Labour at the next general election
- Labour nevertheless only holding on to 35% of their 2024 voters in Wales, although this is an improvement from our last poll
- Tories likewise only holding on to 41% of their 2024 Welsh voters
- Overall Senedd voting intention figures broadly mirror May’s vote
In the first YouGov / Barn Cymru (ITV Wales) Westminster voting intention poll since Andy Burnham took over as prime minister, Labour has seen a significant improvement in their vote share, accompanied by a decline for Reform UK.
Labour now take 18% of the vote, a 10pt increase from our last poll in May, just ahead of the 2026 Senedd elections. This means they are now neck and neck with Reform UK, who have experienced a seven point decline, to 19%.
Both trail Plaid Cymru by some margin, however, with their 27% vote share broadly similar to the 30% they achieved a few months ago.
Meanwhile, the Conservatives take 16% of the vote, compared to 12% last time, while the Greens have fallen back to 8%, having been on 13% in May. Only 5% intend to back the Lib Dems, a figure largely unchanged from our previous poll, while 7% intend to cast their ballot for some other party.
Looking at how 2026 voters intend to vote the next time a Westminster general election is called shows that Plaid are currently expecting to hold on to notably fewer of their recent backers (59%) than the other largest parties (71-75%).
The largest portion of Plaid defectors are either planning to back Labour (15%) or say they don’t know (9%) who they would vote for, with only handfuls of voters leaving for other parties.
Elsewhere, we see 9% of Reform UK voters saying they would choose the Conservatives at the next Westminster election, alongside 10% saying they would vote for “someone else”, with Restore Britain being the presumable beneficiary of most of this group.
Looking instead at how 2024 voters in Wales would choose to cast their ballot at the next Westminster election finds that Reform UK voters are the most likely to stay consistent, with 72% planning to stick with Farage’s party.
Plaid voters are similarly sticky, with 69% intending to return to Rhun ap Iorwerth’s team.
By contrast, Labour are only retaining 35% of their Welsh 2024 voters – although this is an improvement on the 24% they were holding on to at the time of the last poll. A quarter of 2024 Labour voters (24%) say they now intend to back Plaid instead.
The Conservatives likewise are only holding on to 41% of their 2024 voters in Wales, with fully a third now saying they will back Reform UK.
Senedd voting intention
Our first voting intention poll since the 2026 Senedd elections finds that the vote shares for all main parties remain relatively similar to the results they achieved at the ballot box in May.
Plaid Cymru continue to hold the top spot, at 32% of the vote – this compares to 35% of the vote taken in May’s elections. Close behind are Reform UK on 27%, having taken 29% at the devolved elections.
Elsewhere, Labour are on 13% of the vote (compared to 11% in May), the Tories on 11% (unchanged), the Greens on 7% (also unchanged) and the Lib Dems on 5% (again unchanged).
Plaid Cymru and Reform have held on to approximately three quarters of their 2026 voters (74% and 78% respectively), while Labour and the Tories are holding on to 69% and 68% of their respective recent electorates.
Plaid’s primary loss is to “don’t know”, at 11%, with 9% of Labour voters and 10% of Tories also currently unsure. However, there has been a notable loss from Labour to Plaid in the four months since the election, with 12% of 2026 Labour voters now intending to back the nationalist party.
Also noticeable are the 10% of Reform UK voters again saying they would back “some other party” at a future Senedd election.
See the full Westminster voting intention results here
See the full Senedd voting intention results here
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